[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 August 19 issued 2331 UT on 06 Aug 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 7 09:31:34 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 AUGUST 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 07 AUGUST - 09 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Aug:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Aug             08 Aug             09 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 06 August. 
There is one numbered region on the visible solar disk, AR 2745. 
Very Low solar activity is expected for the next 3 UT days, 07-09 
August. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available 
coronagraph imagery. On UT day 06 August, the solar wind speed 
ranged between 600 km/s and 680 km/s, gradually decreasing on 
average. The total IMF (Bt) varied between -4 nT and 4 nT. The 
solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated during the next 
UT day, 7 August, due to high speed solar wind streams associated 
with a recurrent trans-equatorial coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Aug: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 06 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   22234211
      Cocos Island         5   22223100
      Darwin               7   22233101
      Townsville          11   23334211
      Learmonth           11   32334211
      Alice Springs        9   22234111
      Culgoora             8   22233211
      Gingin              10   22234212
      Canberra             8   22233211
      Launceston          14   33344212
      Hobart              11   22244212    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Aug :
      Macquarie Island    16   22255211
      Casey               12   34332212
      Mawson              35   45543346

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              32   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            53   (Unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             16                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             36   1455 5634     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Aug    14    Unsettled to Active
08 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled
09 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: On UT day 06 August, Quiet and Active levels of geomagnetic 
activity were recorded in the Australian region; in Antarctic 
region, mostly Quiet to Minor Storm levels were observed. Global 
geomagnetic activity is expected to decrease to mostly Unsettled 
levels during UT day 07 August as the coronal hole effects wane. 
However, isolated Active periods are possible because the Earth 
is under the influence of the high speed solar wind streams associated 
with the recurrent trans-equatorial coronal hole. Then geomagnetic 
activity is expected to decrease to Quiet and Unsettled levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
08 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
09 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next 3 UT days, 07-09 August. Mildly to moderately depressed 
maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) are possible for high-latitude 
region on UT day 07 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Aug    -6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      -2
Aug      -13
Sep      -15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Aug     0    Near predicted monthly values
08 Aug     0    Near predicted monthly values
09 Aug     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: On UT day 06 August, maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) 
stayed mostly near predicted monthly values across the Australian 
region. Mild enhancements were observed in the Northern Australian 
Region during local night. Sporadic-E occurrences were observed 
over all sites. MUFs in the Australian regions are expected to 
stay mostly near the predicted monthly values for the next three 
UT days, 07-09 August. However, mild to moderate depressions 
are possible for high-latitude regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.5

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Aug
Speed: 622 km/sec  Density:    4.2 p/cc  Temp:   286000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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