[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 August 19 issued 2331 UT on 06 Aug 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 7 09:31:34 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 AUGUST 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 07 AUGUST - 09 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Aug: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Aug 08 Aug 09 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 06 August.
There is one numbered region on the visible solar disk, AR 2745.
Very Low solar activity is expected for the next 3 UT days, 07-09
August. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available
coronagraph imagery. On UT day 06 August, the solar wind speed
ranged between 600 km/s and 680 km/s, gradually decreasing on
average. The total IMF (Bt) varied between -4 nT and 4 nT. The
solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated during the next
UT day, 7 August, due to high speed solar wind streams associated
with a recurrent trans-equatorial coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Aug: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 06 Aug : A K
Australian Region 9 22234211
Cocos Island 5 22223100
Darwin 7 22233101
Townsville 11 23334211
Learmonth 11 32334211
Alice Springs 9 22234111
Culgoora 8 22233211
Gingin 10 22234212
Canberra 8 22233211
Launceston 14 33344212
Hobart 11 22244212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Aug :
Macquarie Island 16 22255211
Casey 12 34332212
Mawson 35 45543346
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 53 (Unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 36 1455 5634
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Aug 14 Unsettled to Active
08 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: On UT day 06 August, Quiet and Active levels of geomagnetic
activity were recorded in the Australian region; in Antarctic
region, mostly Quiet to Minor Storm levels were observed. Global
geomagnetic activity is expected to decrease to mostly Unsettled
levels during UT day 07 August as the coronal hole effects wane.
However, isolated Active periods are possible because the Earth
is under the influence of the high speed solar wind streams associated
with the recurrent trans-equatorial coronal hole. Then geomagnetic
activity is expected to decrease to Quiet and Unsettled levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next 3 UT days, 07-09 August. Mildly to moderately depressed
maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) are possible for high-latitude
region on UT day 07 August.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Aug -6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul -2
Aug -13
Sep -15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
08 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
09 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 06 August, maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
stayed mostly near predicted monthly values across the Australian
region. Mild enhancements were observed in the Northern Australian
Region during local night. Sporadic-E occurrences were observed
over all sites. MUFs in the Australian regions are expected to
stay mostly near the predicted monthly values for the next three
UT days, 07-09 August. However, mild to moderate depressions
are possible for high-latitude regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Aug
Speed: 622 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 286000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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