[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 August 19 issued 2339 UT on 04 Aug 2019
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 5 09:39:36 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 AUGUST 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 05 AUGUST - 07 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Aug: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Aug 06 Aug 07 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 04 August.
The visible solar disk is spotless. Very Low solar activity is
expected for the next 3 UT days, 05-07 August. There were no
Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph imagery.
On UT day 04 August, the solar wind speed continued to decline
and is currently around 320 km/s. There was a short period of
slightly elevated solar wind speeds of 360-380 km/s between approximately
04/0630 UT and 04/0900 UT. The total IMF (Bt) varied between
2 to 4 nT. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) reached
a minimum of -4.5 nT at 04/0746 UT. The solar wind is expected
to become enhanced on UT day 05 August due to a recurrent trans-equatorial
positive polarity coronal hole, then begin to decrease on UT
day 07 August.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Aug : A K
Australian Region 2 01211000
Cocos Island 1 00210000
Darwin 2 11210001
Townsville 3 11311001
Learmonth 3 11311100
Alice Springs 1 00200001
Culgoora 2 01211000
Gingin 1 00201100
Canberra 1 00211000
Launceston 2 01212100
Hobart 2 01211100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 3 11211120
Mawson 5 20331110
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 1100 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Aug 20 Unsettled to Minor Storm
06 Aug 20 Unsettled to Minor Storm
07 Aug 14 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 17 was issued on 3 August and
is current for 5 Aug only. In the SWS magnetometer data for 04
Aug, a weak (7nT) impulse was observed at 0717UT. Mainly Quiet
levels of geomagnetic activity were recorded in the Australian
and Antarctic region on UT day 04 August, with some sites observing
an Unsettled period. Global geomagnetic activity is expected
to increase to Unsettled to Minor Storm levels on UT days 05-06
August, due to the forecast arrival of high speed streams from
a trans-equatorial coronal hole. Conditions should decrease to
Quiet to Active levels on UT day 07 August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Aug Fair Fair Fair-poor
06 Aug Fair Fair Fair-poor
07 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mild to moderately poor HF conditions are expected in
the high latitude regions for the next 3 days in response to
the forecasted disturbed conditions associated with the trans-equatorial
coronal hole.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Aug -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul -2
Aug -13
Sep -15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
06 Aug -10 Near predicted monthly values
07 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) stayed mostly near
predicted monthly values across the Australian/NZ regions on
UT day 04 August, with moderate enhancements during the local
night over most sites. The Cocos Island and the Northern Australian
regions had minor depressions during the local day. Sporadic-E
and Spread-F occurrences were observed over some sites. MUFs
in the Australian/NZ regions are expected to stay mostly near
the predicted monthly values for the next three UT days, 05-07
August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Aug
Speed: 369 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 27800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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