[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 August 19 issued 2335 UT on 03 Aug 2019

Sun Aug 4 09:35:49 EST 2019

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 AUGUST 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 04 AUGUST - 06 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Aug:  66/0

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Aug             05 Aug             06 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0

COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 03 August. 
The visible solar disk is spotless. Very Low solar activity is 
expected for the next 3 UT days, 04-06 August. There were no 
Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph imagery. 
On UT day 03 August, the solar wind speed continued to decline 
in response to the waning effects of the negative polarity coronal 
hole. The solar wind speed is currently around its background 
level of 350 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) mostly steady near 4 nT. 
The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied between +/-3 
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain near its background 
level for most of today (UT day 4 August). Then from late on 
UT day 04 August or thereabout, the solar wind is expected to 
become enhanced again due to a large positive polarity trans-equatorial 
coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 03 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   11000000
      Cocos Island         0   01000000
      Darwin               1   12000001
      Townsville           1   11000001
      Learmonth            0   10000000
      Alice Springs        0   01000000
      Culgoora             0   11000000
      Gingin               0   10000000
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Launceston           0   00000000
      Hobart               0   00000000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                2   12100010
      Mawson               2   11000021

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   1111 0122     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled
05 Aug    20    Active
06 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 17 was issued on 3 August and 
is current for 5 Aug only. Quiet levels of geomagnetic activity 
were recorded in the Australian and Antarctic region on UT day 
03 August. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to increase 
to Unsettled to Active levels late on UT day 04 August, followed 
by Unsettled to Minor Storm levels on UT 05 August, due to the 
forecast arrival of high speed streams from a trans-equatorial 
coronal hole.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
05 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
06 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mild to moderately poor HF conditions are expected in 
the high latitude regions for the next 3 days in response to 
the forecasted disturbed conditions associated with the trans-equatorial 
coronal hole.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
03 Aug    -1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 75% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      -2
Aug      -13
Sep      -15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Aug     0    Near predicted monthly values
05 Aug   -10    Near predicted monthly values
06 Aug    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) stayed mostly near 
predicted monthly values across the Australian/NZ regions on 
UT day 03 August, with moderate enhancements during the local 
night over most sites. Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences were 
observed over some sites. MUFs in the Australian/NZ regions are 
expected to stay mostly near the predicted monthly values for 
the next three UT days, 04 to 06 August.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Aug
Speed: 449 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:    63700 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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