[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 April 19 issued 2330 UT on 08 Apr 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 9 09:30:29 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 APRIL 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 09 APRIL - 11 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Apr: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Apr
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 78/17 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 08 Apr, with only B
class flares all from Region 2738. There are currently two numbered
sunspot regions on the visible solar disk. Active Region 2738
is near the east limb (N06E63) and AR2737 is located near the
west limb (N12W61). Solar activity is expected to remain Very
Low for the next 3 UT days, 09-11 Apr, with a weak chance for
C-class flares due the flaring potential of Region 2738. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the available coronograph imagery. The
solar wind speed during the last 24 hours ranged between 375
km/s and 500 km/s. These mild enhancements are due to small weak
coronal holes. The total IMF (Bt) ranged between 2 nT and 9 nT.
The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) ranged between +8 nT
and -8 nT, and was significantly southward between 08/0200 UT
and 08/0400 UT. Solar wind speed is expected to be mostly near
its nominal to weakly enhanced levels for the next three UT days
(09-11 April).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Apr : A K
Australian Region 8 12223321
Darwin 5 12122212
Townsville 7 22223211
Learmonth 9 22223322
Alice Springs 6 12123211
Culgoora 6 12223211
Gingin 11 22114422
Canberra 6 12213221
Launceston 10 12224322
Hobart 8 12223321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Apr :
Macquarie Island 12 12135321
Casey 13 33333322
Mawson 34 45423645
Davis 21 33323632
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 1211 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
10 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Apr 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions were
observed for the AUS/NZ on UT day 8 Apr. Unsettled to Minor storm
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. The observed
disturbed conditions are a combined effect of the Earth currently
being under the influence of slightly enhanced solar wind streams
emanating from small coronal holes and the prolonged period of
Southward IMF Bz condition. During the next 2 UT days, 09-10
April, the global geomagnetic activity is expected to mostly
at Quiet levels and at times may reach Unsettled levels
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: On UT day 08 April, mostly normal HF conditions were
observed over all regions. Similar HF conditions are expected
over the next three UT days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Apr 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 100% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data .
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar -7
Apr -12
May -12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Apr -5 Near predicted monthly values
10 Apr -5 Near predicted monthly values
11 Apr -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions were observed for 08 April with
enhanced conditions for Equatorial regions during local night.
Depressed MUFs observed for Northern Australian during local
day. Similar conditions are expected for the next 24 hours (UT
day 9 April).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.40E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:29%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Apr
Speed: 397 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 43500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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