[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 April 19 issued 2330 UT on 09 Apr 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 10 09:30:30 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 APRIL 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 10 APRIL - 12 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Apr: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Apr 11 Apr 12 Apr
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 79/19 78/17 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 09 April, with only
B class flares. There are currently two numbered sunspot regions
on the visible solar disk. The more active Region 2738 (N06E49)
is rotating towards the solar central meridian, whereas the less
active region AR2737 (N12W75) will soon rotate to the far side
of the sun. Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low for
the next 3 UT days, 10-12 Apr, with a remote chance for C-class
flares due the flaring potential of Region 2738. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the available coronograph imagery. The
solar wind speed during the last 24 hours ranged between 400
km/s and 450 km/s. These mildly elevated solar winds are thought
to be caused by small patching coronal holes. The total IMF (Bt)
ranged between 5 nT and 9 nT. The north-south component of the
IMF (Bz) ranged between +6 nT and -5 nT, and predominately remained
southward. Solar wind speed is expected to be mostly near its
nominal to weakly enhanced levels for the next two UT days (10-11
April).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 09 Apr : A K
Australian Region 7 21321311
Darwin 5 21211311
Townsville 7 32321211
Learmonth 8 31222321
Alice Springs 5 22221211
Culgoora 6 21321211
Gingin 6 21221321
Canberra 6 21321211
Launceston 9 32322312
Hobart 7 21322311
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Apr :
Macquarie Island 12 21433331
Casey 13 34422222
Mawson 16 43333333
Davis 13 33432232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 10 2422 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Apr 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions were
observed for the AUS/NZ on UT day 09 April. Unsettled conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region. The observed disturbed
conditions are a combined effect of the Earth currently being
under the influence of slightly enhanced solar wind streams emanating
from small coronal holes and the prolonged period of Southward
IMF Bz condition. During the next 2 UT days, 10-11 April, the
global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly at Quiet
levels and at times may reach Unsettled levels.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: On UT day 09 April, mostly normal HF conditions were
observed over all regions. Similar HF conditions are expected
over the next three UT days (10-12 April).
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Apr 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar -7
Apr -12
May -12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Apr 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
11 Apr 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
12 Apr 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly near monthly predicted to slightly enhanced MUFs
were observed for 09 April over the Australian and Antarctic
region. Similar conditions are expected for the next 3 UT days
(10-12 April).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Apr
Speed: 433 km/sec Density: 8.6 p/cc Temp: 119000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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