[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 April 19 issued 2338 UT on 07 Apr 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 8 09:38:10 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 APRIL 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 08 APRIL - 10 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Apr:  77/16


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Apr             09 Apr             10 Apr
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    77/16              77/16              74/11

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 07 Apr, with only B 
class flares all from Region 2738. Region 2738 which has just 
appeared at the East limb, may produce more flares over the next 
few days. Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low for the 
next 3 UT days, 08-10 Apr, with chance for C-class flares due 
the flaring potential of Region 2738. No Earth-directed CMEs 
were observed in the available imagery. The solar wind speed 
during the last 24 hours declined from 475 km/s to 370 km/s in 
response to the waning effects of the negative polarity coronal 
holes. The total IMF (Bt) ranged between 2 nT and 5 nT. The north-south 
component of the IMF (Bz) ranged between +3 nT and -3 nT, being 
mostly negative. Solar wind speed is expected to be mostly near 
its nominal levels for the next three UT days (08-10 April).

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 07 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11012011
      Cocos Island         1   11001011
      Darwin               2   11012001
      Townsville           3   11012111
      Learmonth            3   12002112
      Alice Springs        1   01002001
      Culgoora             2   01012001
      Gingin               4   12003012
      Canberra             1   01002001
      Launceston           4   12013111
      Hobart               2   01012100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     2   01112000
      Casey                9   33313112
      Mawson              26   25322165
      Davis               11   23322124

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8   3322 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Apr     7    Quiet
09 Apr     7    Quiet
10 Apr     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed for 
the AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions on 7 Apr. For Southern Australian 
Region an isolated Minor Storm period was observed. Mostly Quiet 
geomagnetic conditions are expected for UT day 08-10 Apr.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: On UT day 07 April, mostly normal HF conditions were 
observed over all regions. Similar HF conditions are expected 
over the next three UT days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Apr    -1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day.
      Enhanced by 90% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available .
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      -7
Apr      -12
May      -12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Apr    -5    Near predicted monthly values
09 Apr    -5    Near predicted monthly values
10 Apr    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Variable HF conditions were observed for 07Apr with 
enhanced conditions for Equatorial regions during local day and 
night. Depressed MUFs observed for Northern Australian during 
local day. Sporadic E layers observed over some Australian ionosonde 
station. Similar conditions are expected for the next 24 hours 
(UT day 8 April).

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+08   (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Apr
Speed: 476 km/sec  Density:    4.9 p/cc  Temp:   199000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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