[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 April 19 issued 2338 UT on 07 Apr 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 8 09:38:10 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 APRIL 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 08 APRIL - 10 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Apr: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 77/16 77/16 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 07 Apr, with only B
class flares all from Region 2738. Region 2738 which has just
appeared at the East limb, may produce more flares over the next
few days. Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low for the
next 3 UT days, 08-10 Apr, with chance for C-class flares due
the flaring potential of Region 2738. No Earth-directed CMEs
were observed in the available imagery. The solar wind speed
during the last 24 hours declined from 475 km/s to 370 km/s in
response to the waning effects of the negative polarity coronal
holes. The total IMF (Bt) ranged between 2 nT and 5 nT. The north-south
component of the IMF (Bz) ranged between +3 nT and -3 nT, being
mostly negative. Solar wind speed is expected to be mostly near
its nominal levels for the next three UT days (08-10 April).
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 11012011
Cocos Island 1 11001011
Darwin 2 11012001
Townsville 3 11012111
Learmonth 3 12002112
Alice Springs 1 01002001
Culgoora 2 01012001
Gingin 4 12003012
Canberra 1 01002001
Launceston 4 12013111
Hobart 2 01012100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Apr :
Macquarie Island 2 01112000
Casey 9 33313112
Mawson 26 25322165
Davis 11 23322124
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 3322 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Apr 7 Quiet
09 Apr 7 Quiet
10 Apr 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed for
the AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions on 7 Apr. For Southern Australian
Region an isolated Minor Storm period was observed. Mostly Quiet
geomagnetic conditions are expected for UT day 08-10 Apr.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Apr Normal Normal Normal
09 Apr Normal Normal Normal
10 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: On UT day 07 April, mostly normal HF conditions were
observed over all regions. Similar HF conditions are expected
over the next three UT days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Apr -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Enhanced by 90% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available .
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar -7
Apr -12
May -12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Apr -5 Near predicted monthly values
09 Apr -5 Near predicted monthly values
10 Apr -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions were observed for 07Apr with
enhanced conditions for Equatorial regions during local day and
night. Depressed MUFs observed for Northern Australian during
local day. Sporadic E layers observed over some Australian ionosonde
station. Similar conditions are expected for the next 24 hours
(UT day 8 April).
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Apr
Speed: 476 km/sec Density: 4.9 p/cc Temp: 199000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list