[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 April 19 issued 2344 UT on 06 Apr 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 7 09:44:09 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 APRIL 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 07 APRIL - 09 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Apr: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Apr 08 Apr 09 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 74/11 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 06Apr. No Earth directed
CMEs were observed in the available imagery and there are no
numbered regions on the visible disc. The solar wind speed (Vsw)
has been elevated over the last few days due to the influence
of high speed solar wind streams from a group of small negative
polarity coronal holes. Vsw was 521km/s at 00UT reaching a maximum
of 530km/s at 0157UT before gradually declining to be 433km/s
at the time of this report. The north-south component of the
IMF (Bz) ranged between +2nT and -3nT with no significant sustained
southward Bz periods. Solar wind speed is expected to remain
elevated over the next 12-24 hours. Solar activity is expected
to remain Very Low for the next 3 UT days, with only slight chance
for C-class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Apr : A K
Australian Region 4 22121011
Cocos Island 1 11101010
Darwin 3 21111011
Townsville 4 12121111
Learmonth 4 22122020
Alice Springs 4 22121011
Culgoora 3 12121110
Gingin 4 21121021
Canberra 3 12121010
Launceston 6 22231111
Hobart 5 12231110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Apr :
Macquarie Island 3 12220000
Casey 13 34431122
Mawson 33 34232275
Davis 13 33432123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 5 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12 3322 3332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Apr 11 Unsettled
08 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Apr 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed for AUS/NZ
regions on 06Apr with Unsettled to Active conditions observed
for Antarctic regions. Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected
for 07Apr with the chance of isolated Active periods for Southern
AUS/NZ regions and Minor Storm periods for Antarctic regions
due coronal hole effects. Mostly Quiet conditions with possible
Unsettled periods expected for 08Apr-09Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Apr Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions were observed for 06Apr, with
Low latitude enhancements to mildly depressed MUFs at Mid latitudes
and periods of disturbed ionospheric support for High latitudes.
Similar HF conditions are expected for the next 24hours with
improving ionospheric support for high to mid latitudes 08Apr-09Apr.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Apr -9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar -7
Apr -12
May -12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Apr -10 Near predicted monthly values
08 Apr -5 Near predicted monthly values
09 Apr -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions were observed for 06Apr with
enhanced conditions for Equatorial regions during local day and
night. Depressed MUFs observed for Northern Australian and Southern
AUS/NZ regions during local day. Disturbed ionospheric support
for Antarctic regions. Similar conditions are expected for the
next 24 hours with the chance of notable MUF depressions for
Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions. Improved ionospheric
support is expected for mid-high latitudes 08Apr-09Apr.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Apr
Speed: 496 km/sec Density: 6.2 p/cc Temp: 217000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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