[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 April 19 issued 2349 UT on 05 Apr 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 6 10:49:24 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 APRIL 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 06 APRIL - 08 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Apr: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Apr 07 Apr 08 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 05Apr. No Earth directed
CMEs were observed in the available imagery and region 2737 (N12W22)
has decayed to plage. The solar wind speed (Vsw) was elevated
due to the influence of a high speed solar wind stream from a
negative polarity coronal hole. Vsw ranged between 430km/s and
533km/s over the UT day and is currently 527km/s at the time
of this report. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) ranged
between +/-5nT with no significant sustained southward Bz periods.
Solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated over the next
24-36 hours due to the effects of a fragmented group of coronal
holes. Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low for the
next 3 UT days, with only slight chance for C-class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 05 Apr : A K
Australian Region 10 22333222
Cocos Island 6 22212222
Darwin 9 22323222
Townsville 10 22333222
Learmonth 12 22224333
Alice Springs 10 22333222
Culgoora 10 22333222
Gingin 12 22224333
Canberra 9 12333222
Launceston 17 23344333
Hobart 12 13334222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Apr :
Macquarie Island 15 12345222
Casey 16 44324223
Mawson 40 24433376
Davis 36 33433375
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 11 2223 2421
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Apr 11 Unsettled
07 Apr 14 Unsettled to Active
08 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed
for AUS/NZ regions on 05Apr with isolated Active to Minor Storm
periods observed for Antarctic regions. Unsettled conditions
are expected for the next 2 days with possible isolated Active
periods for Southern AUS/NZ regions and possible Minor Storm
periods for Antarctic regions 07Apr due continued coronal hole
effects. Mostly Quiet conditions with possible Unsettled periods
expected for 08Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Apr Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair-normal
07 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
08 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions were observed for 05Apr, with
Low latitude enhancements to mildly depressed MUFs at Mid latitudes
and periods of disturbed ionospheric support for High latitudes.
Similar HF conditions are expected for the next 3 UT days with
the chance of significantly depressed MUFs for High to Mid latitudes
due to increased geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Apr -8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar -7
Apr -12
May -12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Apr -10 Near predicted monthly values
07 Apr -15 Near predicted monthly values
08 Apr -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 4 was issued on 5 April
and is current for 5-6 Apr. Variable HF conditions were observed
for 05Apr with slightly enhanced conditions for Equatorial and
regions during local day and minor depressions were observed
for Northern Australian and Southern AUS/NZ regions during local
day. Disturbed ionospheric support for Antarctic regions. Similar
conditions are expected for the next 3 UT days with the chance
of notable MUF depressions for Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ
regions due to elevated geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Apr
Speed: 430 km/sec Density: 6.9 p/cc Temp: 94300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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