[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 April 19 issued 2330 UT on 04 Apr 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 5 10:30:37 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 APRIL 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 05 APRIL - 07 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Apr: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Apr 06 Apr 07 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 04 Apr. No Earth directed
CMEs were observed in the available imagery and region 2737 (N12W09)
has decayed over the last 24 hours. The solar wind speed ranged
between 377 km/s and 450 km/s between 00UT and 13UT after which
it increased to 511km/s. Solar wind speed has since ranged between
447km/s and 527km/s and is currently 472 km/s at the time of
this report. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) ranged
between +1 nT and -2 nT between 00UT-08UT before a notable southward
Bz excursion between 09UT-10UT where Bz reached -7nT. Bz then
fluctuated between +6nT and -7nT for the remainder of the UT
day. Solar wind speed is expected to be moderately elevated over
the next 24-48 hours due to coronal hole effects. Solar activity
is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3 UT days, with only
slight chance for C-class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 04 Apr : A K
Australian Region 8 21232321
Cocos Island 5 11122320
Darwin 7 21132311
Townsville 7 21232311
Learmonth 8 21232321
Alice Springs 7 11232320
Culgoora 6 11132310
Gingin 9 21132421
Canberra 6 11132310
Launceston 10 21243321
Hobart 10 11243321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Apr :
Macquarie Island 12 21153320
Casey 16 34423332
Mawson 28 53333463
Davis 16 44333331
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12 2433 3223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Apr 12 Unsettled
06 Apr 12 Unsettled
07 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions were
observed for the AUS/NZ regions on 04 Apr with notable Active
to Minor Storm periods observed for Antarctic regions. Unsettled
conditions are expected for the next 3 days with possible isolated
Active periods for Southern AUS/NZ regions and possible Minor
Storm periods for Antarctic regions due continued coronal hole
effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Apr Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Apr Normal Normal Fair-normal
06 Apr Normal Normal Fair-normal
07 Apr Normal Normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions were observed for 04 Apr, with
Low latitude enhancements to mildly depressed MUFs at Mid latitudes
and periods of disturbed ionospheric support for High latitudes.
Similar HF conditions are expected for the next 3 UT days with
the chance of significantly depressed MUFs for High to Mid latitudes
due to increased geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Apr -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar -7
Apr -12
May -12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Apr -15 Near predicted monthly values
06 Apr -10 Near predicted monthly values
07 Apr -15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions were observed for 04 Apr with
slightly enhanced conditions for Equatorial regions during local
day and night and minor depressions were observed for Northern
Australian Region during local day. MUFs near predicted monthly
values for Southern AUS and NZ regions. Periods of disturbed
ionospheric support for Antarctic regions. Similar conditions
are expected for the next 3 UT days with the chance of notable
MUF depressions for Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions
due to increased geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Apr
Speed: 392 km/sec Density: 6.5 p/cc Temp: 68000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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