[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 April 19 issued 2330 UT on 01 Apr 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 2 10:30:19 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 APRIL 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 02 APRIL - 04 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Apr: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Apr 03 Apr 04 Apr
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low on UT day 01 April, with no flares.
There is currently one numbered sunspot region on the visible
solar disk, Region 2737 located near N12E31 at 01/2300 UT. This
region has grown slightly over the last 24 hours. Solar activity
is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3 UT days, 02-04
April, with a remote chance for C-class flares. No other Earth
directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery.
On UT day 01 April, the solar wind speed ranged between 380 km/s
and 430 km/s. The mildly elevated solar wind speed was caused
by a negative polarity coronal hole. During the last 24 hours,
the total IMF (Bt) ranged between 2 nT and 8 nT. The north-south
component of IMF (Bz) ranged between +2 nT and -6 nT, and was
predominately southward from 01/0430 UT to 01/1400 UT. The two
day outlook (UT days 02-03 April) is for the solar wind to remain
at slightly elevated levels in response to the effects from the
coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Apr: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 01 Apr : A K
Australian Region 7 11143210
Cocos Island 4 11132100
Darwin 5 10142100
Townsville 7 11242210
Learmonth 9 11153100
Alice Springs 9 11153200
Culgoora 8 21143210
Gingin 7 11143210
Canberra 6 10143200
Launceston 10 11253210
Hobart 8 11243210
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Apr :
Macquarie Island 27 11474310
Casey 15 44433111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 2430 3121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Apr 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Active geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 01 April. Unsettled to Active
periods were observed in the Antarctic region. The observed disturbed
conditions are a combined effect of the Earth currently being
under the influence of slightly enhanced solar wind streams emanating
from a negative polarity coronal hole and the prolonged period
of Southward IMF Bz condition. During the next 2 UT days, 02-03
April, the global geomagnetic activity is expected to mostly
at Quiet to Unsettled levels and at times may reach Active levels
due to the effects of the coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: On UT day 1 April there were mild MUF depressions over
the Southern high latitude regions as compared to the monthly
predicted levels. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for
the next 2 UT days, 02-03 April, with occasional MUF depressions
in the high latitude regions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Apr -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar -7
Apr -12
May -12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Apr -10 Near predicted monthly values
03 Apr -10 Near predicted monthly values
04 Apr -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly Near predicted monthly MUFs were observed for
the Australian region on UT day 01 April. Mild depressions were
observed over Northern Australian region during local day. Sporadic
E layers observed over some Australian ionosonde station. Slightly
degraded to near monthly predicted MUFs are expected for the
next three UT days 02-04 April.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Mar
Speed: 399 km/sec Density: 6.8 p/cc Temp: 79400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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