[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 April 19 issued 2353 UT on 02 Apr 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 3 10:53:19 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 APRIL 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 03 APRIL - 05 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Apr:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Apr             04 Apr             05 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    71/6               71/6               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low 02Apr. There is currently 
one numbered sunspot region on the visible solar disk, Region 
2737 located near N12E18 which grew slightly in overall area 
in the last 24 hours and is currently 40 millionths of a solar 
hemisphere. No earth directed CME's observed in the available 
imagery. The solar wind speed ranged between 359km/s and 447km/s 
over the UT day and is currently 387km/s at the time of this 
report. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) ranged between 
+/-3nT between 00UT and 18UT after which it increased in magnitude, 
ranging between +5 and -6nT with some sustained southward Bz 
periods. Solar wind speed is expected to be slightly elevated 
03Apr-04Apr due to the anticipated onset of a high speed solar 
wind stream from a recurrent negative polarity coronal hole. 
Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3 
days with only slight chance for C-class flares.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 02 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   10001022
      Cocos Island         2   10000022
      Darwin               2   11000022
      Townsville           2   10101022
      Learmonth            4   10000033
      Alice Springs        2   00001022
      Culgoora             2   00001022
      Gingin               4   10001133
      Canberra             2   00001022
      Launceston           3   11002122
      Hobart               2   00002022    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     1   00001011
      Casey               12   33311134

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               3   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   2123 2211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Apr    11    Unsettled
04 Apr     9    Quiet to Unsettled
05 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed for the AUS/NZ 
region 02Apr and Unsettled conditions for Antarctic regions. 
Unsettled with possible isolated Active periods expected for 
03Apr due to recurrent coronal hole effects. Mostly Quiet to 
Unsettled conditions are expected for 04Apr-05Apr.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
04 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
05 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Variable HF conditions observed for 02Apr at Low-Mid latitudes 
ranging from mildly depressed MUFs to slightly enhanced. MUFs 
near predicted monthly value for mid latitudes while occasional 
disturbed ionospheric support for high latitudes. Similar HF 
conditions are expected for the next 3 days with the chance of 
significantly depressed MUFs for high to mid latitudes due to 
increased geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Apr   -10

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      -7
Apr      -12
May      -12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Apr   -10    Near predicted monthly values
04 Apr   -10    Near predicted monthly values
05 Apr   -10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Variable HF conditions observed for 02Apr with slightly 
enhanced conditions for Equatorial/Northern AUS regions during 
local night and depressed MUFs for Northern AUS and Southern 
AUS/NZ regions during local day. Periods of disturbed ionospheric 
support for Antarctic regions with otherwise MUFs near predicted 
monthly values. Similar conditions are expected for the next 
3 days with the chance of notable MUF depressions for Northern 
AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions due to possible increased geomagnetic 
activity over this time.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Apr
Speed: 400 km/sec  Density:    5.9 p/cc  Temp:    61800 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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