[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 April 19 issued 2353 UT on 02 Apr 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 3 10:53:19 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 APRIL 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 03 APRIL - 05 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Apr: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Apr 04 Apr 05 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low 02Apr. There is currently
one numbered sunspot region on the visible solar disk, Region
2737 located near N12E18 which grew slightly in overall area
in the last 24 hours and is currently 40 millionths of a solar
hemisphere. No earth directed CME's observed in the available
imagery. The solar wind speed ranged between 359km/s and 447km/s
over the UT day and is currently 387km/s at the time of this
report. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) ranged between
+/-3nT between 00UT and 18UT after which it increased in magnitude,
ranging between +5 and -6nT with some sustained southward Bz
periods. Solar wind speed is expected to be slightly elevated
03Apr-04Apr due to the anticipated onset of a high speed solar
wind stream from a recurrent negative polarity coronal hole.
Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3
days with only slight chance for C-class flares.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 10001022
Cocos Island 2 10000022
Darwin 2 11000022
Townsville 2 10101022
Learmonth 4 10000033
Alice Springs 2 00001022
Culgoora 2 00001022
Gingin 4 10001133
Canberra 2 00001022
Launceston 3 11002122
Hobart 2 00002022
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Apr :
Macquarie Island 1 00001011
Casey 12 33311134
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 3 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 2123 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Apr 11 Unsettled
04 Apr 9 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed for the AUS/NZ
region 02Apr and Unsettled conditions for Antarctic regions.
Unsettled with possible isolated Active periods expected for
03Apr due to recurrent coronal hole effects. Mostly Quiet to
Unsettled conditions are expected for 04Apr-05Apr.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions observed for 02Apr at Low-Mid latitudes
ranging from mildly depressed MUFs to slightly enhanced. MUFs
near predicted monthly value for mid latitudes while occasional
disturbed ionospheric support for high latitudes. Similar HF
conditions are expected for the next 3 days with the chance of
significantly depressed MUFs for high to mid latitudes due to
increased geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Apr -10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar -7
Apr -12
May -12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Apr -10 Near predicted monthly values
04 Apr -10 Near predicted monthly values
05 Apr -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions observed for 02Apr with slightly
enhanced conditions for Equatorial/Northern AUS regions during
local night and depressed MUFs for Northern AUS and Southern
AUS/NZ regions during local day. Periods of disturbed ionospheric
support for Antarctic regions with otherwise MUFs near predicted
monthly values. Similar conditions are expected for the next
3 days with the chance of notable MUF depressions for Northern
AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions due to possible increased geomagnetic
activity over this time.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Apr
Speed: 400 km/sec Density: 5.9 p/cc Temp: 61800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list