[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 31 March 19 issued 2330 UT on 31 Mar 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 1 10:30:20 EST 2019 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 MARCH 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 01 APRIL - 03 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Mar:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Apr             02 Apr             03 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 31 Mar. An unnumbered 
region has emerged near (N12E51). There were no earth directed 
CMEs observed in the available imagery. Solar activity is expected 
to remain Very Low for the next 3 days, 1-3 Apr with a small 
chance of C-class flares. On UT day 31 Mar, the solar wind speed 
ranged between 370 km/s and 430 km/s, gradually increasing on 
average. The observed mildly elevated solar wind speeds were 
probably caused by weak coronal hole effects. The total IMF (Bt) 
ranged between 3 nT and 7 nT and the north-south component of 
IMF (Bz) fluctuated between +/-6 nT with prolonged sustained 
southward Bz ranging between -2nT and -5nT. Slightly enhanced 
solar wind speed may be observed over the next three UT days, 
01-03 Apr due some weak dispatched coronal holes.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 31 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   23312121
      Cocos Island         6   23212120
      Darwin               7   33212111
      Townsville           8   33312111
      Learmonth            6   23212120
      Alice Springs        7   23312220
      Culgoora             8   23312122
      Gingin               6   22203220
      Canberra             7   23312120
      Launceston           9   23313221
      Hobart               8   23303220    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     9   13304300
      Casey               13   34423121

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   2110 1001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Apr    12    Quiet to Unsettled with possible Active periods.
02 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled
03 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed 
in the Australian region on UT day 31 Mar. Unsettled to Active 
periods were observed in the Antarctic region. The geomagnetic 
activity is expected to stay at Quiet to Unsettled levels and 
at times may reach Active levels due to weak coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
02 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
03 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on 31 Mar. 
Similar HF conditions are expected today, 01 Apr.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
31 Mar    -7

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      -15
Mar      -12
Apr      -13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Apr   -10    Near predicted monthly values
02 Apr   -10    Near predicted monthly values
03 Apr   -10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly Near predicted monthly MUFs were observed for 
the Australian region on UT day 31 Mar. Variable HF conditions 
were observed in Cocos Island region with moderate enhancements 
during local night and mild depressions after local dawn. Sporadic 
E layers observed at Hobart ionosonde station. Similar levels 
of ionospheric support may be observed 01-03 Apr.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Mar
Speed: 393 km/sec  Density:    3.3 p/cc  Temp:    47300 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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