[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 September 18 issued 2332 UT on 23 Sep 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Mon Sep 24 09:32:09 EST 2018

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 SEPTEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 SEPTEMBER - 26 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Sep:  68/2

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Sep             25 Sep             26 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery 
and the visible disk remains spotless. Solar wind speed was 488km/s 
at 00UT and fluctuated between 496km/s and 415kms over the UT 
day. Solar wind speed remains slightly elevated at 455km/s at 
the time of this report. The north-south component of the IMF 
(Bz) ranged between +/-5nT with notable sustained southward periods 
early in the UT day. Solar wind speed is is expected to remain 
elevated over the next 24 hours after which it is expected to 
return to ambient levels for 25Sep-26sep. Solar activity is expected 
to remain at Very Low levels for the next 3 days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 23 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   22223222
      Cocos Island         6   12113222
      Darwin               8   22223222
      Townsville           7   22123222
      Learmonth           12   33224223
      Alice Springs        7   12223222
      Culgoora             7   22123222
      Gingin              11   22124233
      Canberra             7   22123222
      Launceston          12   23224332
      Hobart              10   22224322    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Sep :
      Macquarie Island    16   32245321
      Casey               10   33222223
      Mawson              25   54423335
      Davis               19   33333335

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             21   3444 4343     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Sep    12    Unsettled
25 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled
26 Sep     5    Quiet

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 21 was issued on 22 September 
and is current for 22-24 Sep. Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic 
conditions observed over the Australian region for 23Sep with 
Active to isolated Minor Storm periods for Antarctic regions. 
Unsettled conditions expected for 24Sep with possible Active 
periods. Mostly Quiet conditions with possible Unsettled periods 
for 25Sep-26Sep.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
25 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
26 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Maximum user frequencies near predicted monthly values 
for 23Sep across all latitudes, with minor depressions for mid 
latitudes. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over the 
next 3 days with possible mildly depressed MUFs for mid latitudes 
and periods of disturbed ionospheric support for high latitudes.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
23 Sep    -7

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      1
Sep      -4
Oct      -4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Sep     0    Near predicted monthly values
25 Sep     0    Near predicted monthly values
26 Sep     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs near predicted monthly values for most regions 
with only mildly depressed MUFs for Southern AUS/NZ regions. 
Similar HF conditions are expected over the next 3 days with 
chance of minor depressed MUFs for Southern AUS/NZ regions and 
disturbed conditions for Antarctic regions.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.90E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Sep
Speed: 480 km/sec  Density:    7.2 p/cc  Temp:   152000 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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