[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 September 18 issued 2343 UT on 24 Sep 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Tue Sep 25 09:43:07 EST 2018

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 SEPTEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 SEPTEMBER - 27 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Sep:  69/3

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Sep             26 Sep             27 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery 
up to 24/1736UT and the visible disk remains spotless. Solar 
wind speed reached a peak of 482 km/s at 24/0202UT then gradually 
decreased over the UT day, currently ~430km/s. The IMF Bt varied 
between 1-6 nT and IMF Bz between +/-4nT over the UT day 24 Sep. 
Solar wind speed is is expected to remain moderately elevated 
on 25 Sep after which it is expected to return to ambient levels 
for 26-27 Sep. Solar activity is expected to remain at Very Low 
levels for the next 3 days. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic 
ion enhancement event beginning 24/0805UT, which can be a precursor 
to increased geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 24 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22222121
      Cocos Island         5   22221121
      Darwin               6   22222122
      Townsville           6   22232111
      Learmonth            8   22223222
      Alice Springs        6   22222121
      Culgoora             5   22222111
      Gingin               7   22222231
      Canberra             6   22232111
      Launceston           9   23332121
      Hobart               6   22232111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     4   12231000
      Casey               16   45332122
      Mawson              31   54333256
      Davis               14   34342132

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              22   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            18   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10   4322 2222     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled
26 Sep     6    Quiet to Unsettled
27 Sep     5    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions observed over 
the Australian region for 24 Sep with Active to isolated Minor 
Storm periods for Antarctic regions. Quiet to Unsettled conditions 
expected for 25-27 Sep.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
26 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
24 Sep   -16

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      1
Sep      -4
Oct      -4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Sep   -10    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
26 Sep    -5    Near predicted monthly values
27 Sep     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: The Australian region experienced Minor to Moderate 
MUF depressions mainly during the local day. The Niue Island 
Region experienced Enhanced MUFs. The Antarctic experienced MUFs 
near predicted monthly values. Similar HF conditions are expected 
on 25 Sep with possible minor MUF depressions for AUS/NZ regions, 
returning to near predicted monthly MUF values on 26-27 Sep.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Sep
Speed: 447 km/sec  Density:    6.5 p/cc  Temp:    41000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Bureau of Meteorology
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