[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 September 18 issued 2349 UT on 22 Sep 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 23 09:49:32 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 SEPTEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 SEPTEMBER - 25 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Sep: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Sep 24 Sep 25 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery
and the visible disk remains spotless. Solar wind speed was 388km/s
at 00UT and gradually increased to reach a maximum of 581km/s
at 1653UT. Solar wind speed remains elevated at ~480km/s at the
time of this report. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz)
was predominantly southward for most of the UT day, ranging between
+6nT and -9nT with notable sustained southward periods between
00UT-02UT and 10UT-13UT. Solar wind speed is is expected to remain
elevated due to continued coronal hole effects for the next 2
days with the anticipated arrival of an equatorially located
coronal hole high speed solar wind stream over the next 24 hours.
Solar activity is expected to remain at Very Low levels for the
next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Sep : A K
Australian Region 15 32344322
Cocos Island 9 31233221
Darwin 12 32334221
Townsville 13 22344222
Learmonth 11 3232----
Alice Springs 14 32344222
Culgoora 13 32343322
Gingin 16 32344332
Canberra 13 32343322
Launceston 18 32354332
Hobart 17 32354322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Sep :
Macquarie Island 34 33475322
Casey 21 54344223
Mawson 55 65544475
Davis 24 44454233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 24
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 0000 1224
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Sep 26 Active with possible Minor Storm periods
24 Sep 14 Unsettled to Active
25 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 21 was issued on 22 September
and is current for 22-24 Sep. Quiet to Active geomagnetic conditions
observed over the Australian region for 22Sep with Active to
isolated Minor Storm periods for Antarctic regions. Active conditions
expected for 23Sep with possible Minor Storm periods due to the
continued influence of coronal hole high speed solar wind streams.
Unsettled to Active conditions for 24Sep and Quiet to Unsettled
conditions for 25Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Maximum user frequencies near predicted monthly values
for 22Sep across all latitudes, with enhancements observed for
low to mid latitudes. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected
over the next 3 days with possible enhancements for low to mid
latitudes and periods of disturbed ionospheric support for high
latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Sep 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 1
Sep -4
Oct -4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Sep 5 Near predicted monthly values
24 Sep 5 Near predicted monthly values
25 Sep 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor MUF enhancements observed for Northern AUS/Equatorial
regions over the last 24 hours, with MUFs near predicted monthly
values for Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions. Similar HF
conditions are expected over the next 3 days with chance of variable
ionospheric support for Equatorial/Northern AUS to Southern AUS/NZ
regions with possible enhancements and minor depressed MUFs.
Disturbed conditions for Antarctic regions due to anticipated
increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:22%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Sep
Speed: 334 km/sec Density: 6.4 p/cc Temp: 23700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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