[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 September 18 issued 2339 UT on 19 Sep 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 20 09:39:21 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 SEPTEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 SEPTEMBER - 22 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Sep: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Sep 21 Sep 22 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery
and the visible disk remains spotless. Solar wind speed was 479km/s
at 00UT, reaching a maximum of 503km/s at 0145UT before it began
a slow decline to be 397km/s at the time of this report. The
north south component of the IMF (Bz) ranged between +4nT and
-3nT. The solar wind speed is expected to continue to decline
towards ambient levels for 20-21Sep. An increase in solar wind
is expected on 22Sep due to the anticipated arrival of a high
speed solar wind stream from an equatorial located coronal hole
that crossed the central meridian today. Solar activity is expected
to remain at Very Low levels for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Sep : A K
Australian Region 2 11210100
Cocos Island 2 11200100
Darwin 2 11210101
Townsville 3 12210111
Learmonth 2 11210100
Alice Springs 2 11200101
Culgoora 2 01210100
Gingin 2 11210100
Canberra 2 01210100
Launceston 3 12220100
Hobart 2 11210100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Sep :
Macquarie Island 1 01210000
Casey 9 34410100
Mawson 9 44221002
Davis 5 23321000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 3222 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Sep 5 Quiet
21 Sep 5 Quiet
22 Sep 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the Australian
region for 19Sep with occasional Active periods for Antarctic
regions in the first half of the UT day. Mostly Quiet conditions
expected for the next 2 days. Initially Quiet with Unsettled
to Active conditions expected for 22Sep due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Sep Normal Normal Normal-poor
COMMENT: Maximum user frequencies near predicted monthly values
for 19Sep across all latitudes, with minor depressions observed
at low latitudes and notable periods of disturbed ionospheric
support at high latitudes. Similar HF conditions are expected
over the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Sep -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 1
Sep -4
Oct -4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Sep -5 Near predicted monthly values
21 Sep -5 Near predicted monthly values
22 Sep 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions for Northern AUS/Equatorial regions
observed over the last 24 hours and occasional disturbed ionospheric
support for Antarctic regions. Similar HF conditions are expected
over the next 3 days with possible minor MUF depressions for
low latitude stations and periods of poor ionospheric support
at high latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Sep
Speed: 499 km/sec Density: 5.7 p/cc Temp: 155000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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