[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 September 18 issued 2344 UT on 20 Sep 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 21 09:44:49 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 SEPTEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 SEPTEMBER - 23 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Sep: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Sep 22 Sep 23 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery
and the visible disk remains spotless. Solar wind speed was 431km/s
at 01UT and has since gradually declined to ~330km/s at the time
of this report. The north south component of the IMF (Bz) ranged
between +3nT and -2nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain
at ambient levels for the next 24-36 hours. An increase in solar
wind is expected from the latter half of the UT day on 22Sep
due to the anticipated arrival of a high speed solar wind stream
from a coronal hole. Solar activity is expected to remain at
Very Low levels for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Sep : A K
Australian Region 0 11000000
Cocos Island 0 01000000
Darwin 1 11100001
Townsville 1 11000011
Learmonth 0 11000000
Alice Springs 0 01000000
Culgoora 1 11000010
Gingin 0 10000000
Canberra 0 11000000
Launceston 1 11001000
Hobart 0 10001000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Sep :
Macquarie Island 0 00001000
Casey 5 23310000
Mawson 2 11211000
Davis 3 12311000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1321 0100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Sep 5 Quiet
22 Sep 14 Unsettled to Active
23 Sep 16 Active
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the Australian
region for 20Sep with occasional Unsettled periods for Antarctic
regions in the first half of the UT day. Mostly Quiet conditions
expected for the next 2 days. Initially Quiet with the chance
of Unsettled to Active conditions for 22Sep and Unsettled to
Active conditions with possible minor Storm periods for 23Sep
due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Sep Normal Normal Normal-poor
23 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Maximum user frequencies near predicted monthly values
for 20Sep across all latitudes, with minor depressions observed
for low latitudes and some periods of disturbed ionospheric support
at high latitudes. Similar HF conditions are expected over the
next 48 hours. Depressed MUFs possible for mid latitudes and
poor ionospheric support for high latitudes 23Sep due to anticipated
increase in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Sep -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
No data available during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 1
Sep -4
Oct -4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Sep -5 Near predicted monthly values
22 Sep -5 Near predicted monthly values
23 Sep -15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Continued minor MUF depressions for Northern AUS/Equatorial
regions observed over the last 24 hours and occasional disturbed
ionospheric support for Antarctic regions. Similar HF conditions
are expected over the next 2 days with possible minor MUF depressions
for low latitude stations and periods of poor ionospheric support
at high latitudes. Depressed MUFs possible for Southern AUS/NZ
regions and disturbed conditions for Antarctic regions 23Sep
due to expected increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Sep
Speed: 439 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 81200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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