[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 September 18 issued 2343 UT on 18 Sep 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 19 09:43:27 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 SEPTEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 SEPTEMBER - 21 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Sep: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Sep 20 Sep 21 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery
and the visible disk remains spotless. Solar wind speed was ~530km/s
during the first hour of the UT day and has gradually declined
to be ~480km/s at the time of this report. The north south component
of the IMF (Bz) ranged between +/-4nT. The solar wind speed is
expected to continue to decline towards ambient levels over the
next 12-24 hours due to the waning influence of a high speed
solar wind stream from an equatorial located negative polarity
coronal hole. Solar activity is expected to remain at Very Low
levels for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 18 Sep : A K
Australian Region 4 21131101
Cocos Island 3 2212010-
Darwin 4 2113010-
Townsville 5 2123110-
Learmonth 6 2223210-
Alice Springs 4 1123010-
Culgoora 3 11131001
Gingin 6 3113110-
Canberra 3 1113100-
Launceston 6 22232011
Hobart 4 12132001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Sep :
Macquarie Island 10 1135200-
Casey 12 3443110-
Mawson 15 3444111-
Davis 9 23431111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 17 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11 33222233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Sep 7 Quiet
20 Sep 6 Quiet
21 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions observed over
the Australian region for 18Sep with occasional Active periods
for Antarctic regions in the first half of the UT day. Mostly
Quiet conditions expected for the next 3 days due to the declining
influence of recurrent coronal hole effects on the solar wind.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Sep Normal Normal Normal
20 Sep Normal Normal Normal
21 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Maximum user frequencies near predicted monthly values
for 18Sep across all latitudes with disturbed ionospheric support
observed at high latitudes during the latter half of the UT day.
Similar HF conditions are expected over the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Sep 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 1
Sep -4
Oct -4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Sep 0 Near predicted monthly values
20 Sep 0 Near predicted monthly values
21 Sep 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed over the Australian/NZ
region during the last 24 hours. Variable ionospheric support
for some Equatorial stations and disturbed ionospheric support
for Antarctic regions during the latter half of the UT day. Similar
HF conditions are expected over the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Sep
Speed: 512 km/sec Density: 10.6 p/cc Temp: 214000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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