[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 September 18 issued 2340 UT on 01 Sep 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 2 09:40:04 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 SEPTEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 SEPTEMBER - 04 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Sep: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Sep 03 Sep 04 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 1 September.
There are no sunspots on the visible disc. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery up to 01/2112
UT. During the last UT day, 1 September, the solar wind speed
varied between 370 and 410 km/s. The IMF Bt was mostly in the
range 1.5 to 4.5nT. The Bz component of IMF was mostly positive
up to around +4 nT by mid day and then mostly negative up to around
-3.5 nT by 2300 UT. Solar activity is expected to remain at Very
Low levels for the next 3 UT days, 2 to 4 September. Solar wind
speed is expected to remain mostly near normal values for the
next three UT days with the possibility of minor enhancements
on 3 September due to a solar sector boundary crossing as per
the recurrence data.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Sep : A K
Australian Region 1 120000--
Cocos Island 0 ----00--
Darwin 4 22101---
Townsville 3 22100---
Learmonth 2 02100---
Alice Springs 2 120010--
Culgoora 2 12100---
Gingin 1 110001--
Canberra 1 020000--
Launceston 2 12000---
Hobart 2 12000---
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Sep :
Macquarie Island 0 010000--
Casey 7 233101--
Mawson 1 ----01--
Davis 5 123110--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 3 (Quiet)
Canberra 7 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1100 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Sep 5 Quiet
03 Sep 7 Mostly Quiet, isolated Unsettled periods possible
04 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed in the Australian region
during the UT day 1 September. Antarctic region experienced mostly
Quiet to Unsettled conditions during the last 24 hours. Quiet
global geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 3 UT
days, 2 to 4 September. Isolated Unsettled conditions may be
observed on 3 September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Sep Normal Normal Normal
03 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: During UT day 1 September MUFs were mostly near predicted
monthly values with periods of minor depressions
in some low latitude regions and periods of minor MUF enhancements
in some high latitude regions. Mostly near predicted monthly
MUFs are expected for the next 3 UT days, 2 to 4 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Sep 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 1
Sep -4
Oct -4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Sep 2 Near predicted monthly values
03 Sep 0 Near predicted monthly values
04 Sep 2 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: During UT day 1 September MUFs were mostly near predicted
monthly values across the Aus/NZ region with periods of minor
depressions in the Northern areas. In Antarctica,
MUFs were near predicted monthly values with periods of minor
enhancements through this UT day. Mostly near predicted monthly
MUFs are expected for the next 3 UT days, 2 to 4 September across
the Aus/NZ region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:37%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Aug
Speed: 382 km/sec Density: 7.9 p/cc Temp: 47500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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