[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 31 August 18 issued 2330 UT on 31 Aug 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 1 09:30:24 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 AUGUST 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 01 SEPTEMBER - 03 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Aug: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Sep 02 Sep 03 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 31 August. There
are no sunspots on the visible disc. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in the available LASCO imagery up to 31/1842 UT. During
the last UT day, 31 August, the solar wind speed varied between
360 and 410 km/s. The IMF Bt was mostly in the range 1 to 8 nT.
The Bz component of IMF varied mostly between +3 and -2 nT until
around mid-day and then varied between +3 and -5 nT during the
remaining parts of the day. Solar activity is expected to remain
at Very Low levels for the next 3 UT days, 1 to 3 September.
Solar wind speed is expected to remain mostly near normal values
for the next three UT days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 31 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 11111211
Cocos Island 3 11111210
Darwin 3 11111111
Townsville 3 11111112
Learmonth 3 11211210
Alice Springs 2 11111110
Culgoora 2 11101111
Gingin 3 00111310
Canberra 2 01101111
Launceston 4 11102221
Hobart 1 01001110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Aug :
Macquarie Island 2 00012110
Casey 7 23321111
Mawson 6 32211221
Davis 6 22222211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 2110 0002
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Sep 5 Quiet
02 Sep 5 Quiet
03 Sep 7 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed in the Australian region
during the UT day 31 August. Antarctic region experienced mostly
Quiet to Unsettled conditions during the last 24 hours. Quiet
global geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 3 UT
days, 1 to 3 September. Isolated Unsettled conditions may be
observed on 3 September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Sep Normal Normal Normal
02 Sep Normal Normal Normal
03 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: During UT day 31 August MUFs were mostly near predicted
monthly values with periods of minor to moderate depressions
in some low and mid latitude regions. Mostly near predicted monthly
MUFs are expected for the next 3 UT days, 1 to 3 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Aug -0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 6
Aug -3
Sep -4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Sep -2 Near predicted monthly values
02 Sep -2 Near predicted monthly values
03 Sep -2 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: During UT day 31 August MUFs were mostly near predicted
monthly values across the Aus/NZ region with periods of minor
to moderate depressions throughout the region. In Antarctica,
MUFs were near predicted monthly values with periods of moderate
enhancements through this UT day. Mostly near predicted monthly
MUFs are expected for the next 3 UT days, 1 to 3 September across
the Aus/NZ region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:42%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Aug
Speed: 393 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 102000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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