[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 September 18 issued 2330 UT on 02 Sep 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 3 09:30:26 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 SEPTEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 SEPTEMBER - 05 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Sep: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Sep 04 Sep 05 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 2 September.
There are no sunspots on the visible disc. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery up to 2/2200
UT. During the last UT day, 2 September, the solar wind speed
varied between 310 and 360 km/s. The IMF Bt was mostly in the
range 1 to 6 nT. The Bz component of IMF was varying from -4
to +2 nT without significant periods of negative Bz. Solar activity
is expected to remain at Very Low levels for the next 3 UT days,
3 to 5 September. Solar wind speed is expected to remain mostly
near its nominal values for the next 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Sep : A K
Australian Region 2 11100111
Cocos Island 1 11100100
Darwin 1 11000101
Townsville 2 11101111
Learmonth 3 11101211
Alice Springs 1 11100101
Culgoora 1 11000111
Gingin 2 11100211
Canberra 2 11100111
Launceston 3 11101211
Hobart 2 11100111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Sep :
Macquarie Island 0 01000000
Casey 7 34200211
Mawson 17 34210345
Davis 8 23310232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 3 0100 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Sep 7 Quiet
04 Sep 5 Quiet
05 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed in the Australian region
during the UT day 2 September. Antarctic region experienced mostly
Quiet to Active conditions during the last 24 hours. Quiet global
geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 3 UT days, 3
to 5 September. Isolated Unsettled periods may be observed on
3 September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Sep Normal Normal Normal
05 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: During UT day 2 September MUFs were mostly near predicted
monthly values. Mostly near predicted monthly MUFs are expected
for the next 3 UT days, 3 to 5 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Sep 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 1
Sep -4
Oct -4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Sep 5 Near predicted monthly values
04 Sep 2 Near predicted monthly values
05 Sep 2 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: During UT day 2 September MUFs were mostly near predicted
monthly values across the Aus/NZ region. Mostly near predicted
monthly MUFs are expected for the next 3 UT days, 3 to 5 September,
across the Aus/NZ region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+09 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:30%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Sep
Speed: 385 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 100000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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