[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 October 18 issued 2330 UT on 24 Oct 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 25 10:30:25 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 OCTOBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 OCTOBER - 27 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Oct: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Oct 26 Oct 27 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 24 October.
There are currently no numbered sunspot regions on the solar
disc visible from the Earth side. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in the available latest LASCO imagery up to 24/0606
UT. The filament disappearance that was reported yesterday and
was observed in the H-alpha and SDO aia_193 and aia_211 imagery
in the north-east region on the solar disk on 23 October between
1439 UT and 1709UT, does not seem to have released any CME into
the interplanetary space. The solar wind speed increased from
325 km/s to 380 km/s during the first 8 hours of the UT day 24
October and then gradually decreased to 300 km/s by 2100 UT.
At the time of writing this report (2230 UT) the solar wind speed
is around 335 km/s. During the last 24 hours, IMF Bt varied mostly
between 2 and 6 nT, Bz fluctuated mostly between +4/-5 nT and
the particle density varied between 4 and 11 ppcc. The mild rise
in the solar wind speed seems to be due to the previously predicted
effect of a negative polarity coronal hole. The effect of this
coronal hole can keep the solar wind stream slightly stronger
on UT days 25 and 26 October. For the next 3 UT days, 25-27 October,
solar activity is expected to stay at Very Low levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Oct : A K
Australian Region 2 11120001
Cocos Island 2 111100--
Darwin 3 211200--
Townsville 2 21120001
Learmonth 2 21120001
Alice Springs 2 111200--
Culgoora 2 21120000
Gingin 2 111100--
Canberra 2 111200--
Launceston 4 12221011
Hobart 2 01221000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Oct :
Macquarie Island 1 010200--
Casey 8 333200--
Mawson 5 222210--
Davis 6 22321012
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1112 1210
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Oct 7 Quiet with isolated Unsettled periods
27 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mainly at Quiet levels on UT
day 24 October across the Australian and Antarctic regions. On
UT days 25 and 26 October, the global geomagnetic activity may
rise to Unsettled levels due to the expected effect of a high
speed solar wind stream from a negative polarity coronal hole.
As the effect of this coronal hole is expected to be weak, global
geomagnetic activity may return to Quiet levels late on UT day
26 October and stay at Quiet levels on UT day 27 October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
26 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
27 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were mainly near monthly predicted levels on UT
day 24 October with some periods of minor to mild depressions
some mid latitude regions. Minor to moderate degradations in
HF conditions and MUF depressions may be possible on UT days
25 and 26 October due to expected rise in geomagnetic activity
levels on these days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Oct -22
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 0
Oct -5
Nov -5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Oct -15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
26 Oct -12 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
27 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs over the Australian and Antarctic regions were
mainly near monthly predicted levels on UT day 24 October with
some periods of minor to mild depressions. Minor to moderate
degradations in HF conditions and MUF depressions may be possible
on UT days 25 and 26 October in the Aus/NZ regions due to expected
rise in geomagnetic activity levels on these days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Oct
Speed: 326 km/sec Density: 7.9 p/cc Temp: 25100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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