[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 October 18 issued 2330 UT on 25 Oct 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 26 10:30:21 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 OCTOBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 OCTOBER - 28 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Oct: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Oct 27 Oct 28 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 25 October.
There are currently no numbered sunspot regions on the solar
disc visible from the Earth side. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in the available latest LASCO imagery up to 25/0212
UT. The solar wind speed varied in the approximate range of 330
km/s to 360 km/ during the last 24 hours. During this period,
IMF Bt varied mostly between 2 and 6 nT, Bz fluctuated mostly
between +/-4 nT and the particle density varied between 3 and
12 ppcc. The effect of a negative polarity coronal hole may result
in periods of slight strengthening to the solar wind stream on
UT day 26 October. Solar activity is expected to stay at Very
Low levels for the next three days (26 to 28 October, UT days).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Oct : A K
Australian Region 5 12022222
Cocos Island 4 12011221
Darwin 5 12022222
Townsville 5 22022212
Learmonth 6 23121221
Alice Springs 6 22022222
Culgoora 5 12022222
Gingin 5 22011222
Canberra 6 12122222
Launceston 7 13122222
Hobart 6 13121212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Oct :
Macquarie Island 3 12021110
Casey 12 34321322
Mawson 14 24122244
Davis 60 24321392
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 1111 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Oct 6 Mostly Quiet, isolated Unsettled periods possible
27 Oct 5 Quiet
28 Oct 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mainly at Quiet levels on UT
day 25 October across the Australian region. Some periods of
Unsettled and Active levels of geomagnetic activity were recorded
in the Antarctic regions. On UT day 26 October, the global geomagnetic
activity may occasionally rise to Unsettled levels due to the
possible effect of a high speed solar wind stream from a negative
polarity coronal hole. Global geomagnetic activity may be expected
to stay at Quiet levels on 27 and 28 October, UT days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
27 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
28 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs were mainly from near monthly predicted levels
to depressed by around 20% on UT day 25 October. Minor to moderate
degradations in HF conditions and MUF depressions may be possible
for the next three days (UT days 26 to 28 October).
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Oct -23
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 0
Oct -5
Nov -5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Oct -15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
27 Oct -12 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
28 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: MUFs over the Australian regions were mainly from near
monthly predicted levels to depressed by around 20% on UT day
25 October. Minor to moderate degradations in HF conditions and
MUF depressions in the Aus/NZ regions may be possible for the
next three days (UT days 26 to 28 October).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Oct
Speed:NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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