[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 October 18 issued 2330 UT on 23 Oct 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 24 10:30:18 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 OCTOBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 OCTOBER - 26 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Oct: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Oct 25 Oct 26 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 23 October.
There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disc
visible from the Earth side. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
in the available latest LASCO imagery up to 22/1912 UT. A filament
disappearance was observed in the H-alpha and SDO aia_193 and
aia_211 imagery in the north-east region on the solar disk around
23 October/1709UT, but no CME seemed lifting off in the available
imagery. No solar flare was recorded at this time either. Further
data analysis is required to make any more conclusions about
this event. The solar wind speed mostly varied between 310 and
340 km/s on UT day 23 October. During this period, IMF Bt varied
mostly between 0.2 and 4.8 nT, Bz fluctuated mostly between +/-3
nT and the particle density varied between 5 and 14 ppcc. Mild
to moderate strengthening in solar wind stream may start from
the second half of UT day 24 October due to the effect of a negative
polarity coronal hole from the southern hemisphere of the Sun.
For the next 3 UT days, 24-26 October, solar activity is expected
to stay at Very Low levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Oct : A K
Australian Region 2 11111001
Cocos Island 0 01100000
Darwin 2 11010112
Townsville 3 11111111
Learmonth 3 11111102
Alice Springs 1 11010011
Culgoora 2 11111001
Gingin 1 11011001
Canberra 2 11021000
Launceston 4 12121111
Hobart 2 12021000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Oct :
Macquarie Island 2 01022000
Casey 7 33321001
Mawson 7 33111113
Davis 6 23222110
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7 2312 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Oct 12 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Oct 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mainly at Quiet levels on UT
day 23 October across the Australian region. Some Unsettled periods
were recorded in the Antarctic region on this day. On UT days
24 and 25 October, the global geomagnetic activity is expected
to rise from Quiet to Unsettled levels due to the expected effect
of a high speed solar wind stream from a negative polarity coronal
hole. There is a small possibility of isolated Active periods
on UT day 24 October due to this effect. As the effect of this
coronal hole is expected to be weak, global geomagnetic activity
may return to Quiet levels late on UT day 25 October and stay
at Quiet levels on UT day 26 October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
25 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
26 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs were mainly near monthly predicted levels on UT
day 23 October with periods of minor to mild depressions in some
low and mid latitude regions. Minor to moderate degradations
in HF conditions and MUF depressions may be possible on UT days
24 and 25 October in the Aus/NZ regions due to expected rise
in geomagnetic activity levels on these days. Mostly normal MUFs
and HF conditions may be expected on UT day 26 October.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Oct -18
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 0
Oct -5
Nov -5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Oct -15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
25 Oct -12 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
26 Oct -8 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs over the Australian and Antarctic regions were
mainly near monthly predicted levels on UT day 23 October with
some periods of minor to mild depressions in the Northern regions.
Minor to moderate degradations in HF conditions and MUF depressions
may be possible on UT days 24 and 25 October in the Aus/NZ regions
due to expected rise in geomagnetic activity levels on these
days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Oct
Speed: 374 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 60700 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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