[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 October 18 issued 2330 UT on 22 Oct 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 23 10:30:18 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 OCTOBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 OCTOBER - 25 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Oct: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Oct 24 Oct 25 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 22 October.
There are currently no numbered sunspot regions on the solar disc
visible from the Earth side. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
in the available SOHO LASCO imagery up to 22/0518 UT. The solar
wind speed started the UT day 22 October at around 370 km/s,
then gradually increased to 400 km/s by around 0600 UT and then
showed a gradual decrease to 330 km/s by 2200 UT. During this
period, IMB Bt varied mostly between 2 and 7 nT, Bz fluctuated
mostly between +/-4 nT and the particle density varied between
3 and 12 ppcc. The solar wind parameters are expected to remain
at nominal values through most parts of the UT day 23 October.
Mild to moderate strengthening in solar wind stream may start
from the late hours on UT day 23 October or early hours on 24
October due to the effect of a negative polarity coronal hole
from the southern hemisphere of the Sun. For the next 3 UT days,
23-25 October, solar activity is expected to stay at Very Low
levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 22202111
Cocos Island 2 12101100
Darwin 3 22101111
Townsville 4 22202111
Learmonth 5 22202112
Alice Springs 4 12202111
Culgoora 4 12202111
Gingin 5 22202112
Canberra 4 12212111
Launceston 6 22213111
Hobart 4 12212111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Oct :
Macquarie Island 4 12123000
Casey 14 35412221
Mawson 19 53312253
Davis 18 33412154
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 0003 3211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Oct 6 Mostly Quiet, some Unsettled periods possible
during late hours of the day.
24 Oct 12 Mostly Unsettled to Active
25 Oct 10 Mostly Quiet to Unsettled, some Active periods
possible
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mainly at Quiet levels on UT
day 22 October across the Australian region. Some Unsettled and
Active periods were recorded in the Antarctic region on this
day. On UT day 23 October, the global geomagnetic activity is
expected to be mainly at Quiet levels, with a chance of some
Unsettled periods during the late hours of the day as the effect
of a negative polarity coronal hole may start late on 23 October.
Due to the effect of this coronal hole, global geomagnetic activity
may increase to Unsettled to Active levels on UT day 24 October,
returning to mostly Quiet to Unsettled with the possibility of
some Active periods on UT day 25 October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Oct Normal Normal Normal
24 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
25 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs were mainly near monthly predicted levels on UT
day 22 October with periods of minor to mild depressions in some
mid latitude areas. HF conditions are expected to remain mostly
normal on UT day 23 October. Minor to moderate degradations in
HF conditions and MUF depressions may be possible on UT days
24 and 25 October due to expected rise in geomagnetic activity
levels on these days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Oct -14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 0
Oct -5
Nov -5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values
24 Oct -15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
25 Oct -12 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: MUFs over the Australian and Antarctic regions were
mainly near monthly predicted levels on UT day 22 October with
some periods of minor to mild depressions in the Northern regions.
HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal on UT day
23 October. Minor to moderate degradations in HF conditions and
MUF depressions may be possible on UT days 24 and 25 October
in the Aus/NZ regions due to expected rise in geomagnetic activity
levels on these days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Oct
Speed: 337 km/sec Density: 15.1 p/cc Temp: 52100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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