[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 October 18 issued 2330 UT on 22 Oct 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 23 10:30:18 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 OCTOBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 OCTOBER - 25 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Oct:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Oct             24 Oct             25 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    71/6               71/6               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 22 October. 
There are currently no numbered sunspot regions on the solar disc 
visible from the Earth side. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed 
in the available SOHO LASCO imagery up to 22/0518 UT. The solar 
wind speed started the UT day 22 October at around 370 km/s, 
then gradually increased to 400 km/s by around 0600 UT and then 
showed a gradual decrease to 330 km/s by 2200 UT. During this 
period, IMB Bt varied mostly between 2 and 7 nT, Bz fluctuated 
mostly between +/-4 nT and the particle density varied between 
3 and 12 ppcc. The solar wind parameters are expected to remain 
at nominal values through most parts of the UT day 23 October. 
Mild to moderate strengthening in solar wind stream may start 
from the late hours on UT day 23 October or early hours on 24 
October due to the effect of a negative polarity coronal hole 
from the southern hemisphere of the Sun. For the next 3 UT days, 
23-25 October, solar activity is expected to stay at Very Low 
levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Oct: Quiet

Estimated Indices 22 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22202111
      Cocos Island         2   12101100
      Darwin               3   22101111
      Townsville           4   22202111
      Learmonth            5   22202112
      Alice Springs        4   12202111
      Culgoora             4   12202111
      Gingin               5   22202112
      Canberra             4   12212111
      Launceston           6   22213111
      Hobart               4   12212111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     4   12123000
      Casey               14   35412221
      Mawson              19   53312253
      Davis               18   33412154

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   0003 3211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Oct     6    Mostly Quiet, some Unsettled periods possible 
                during late hours of the day.
24 Oct    12    Mostly Unsettled to Active
25 Oct    10    Mostly Quiet to Unsettled, some Active periods 
                possible

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mainly at Quiet levels on UT 
day 22 October across the Australian region. Some Unsettled and 
Active periods were recorded in the Antarctic region on this 
day. On UT day 23 October, the global geomagnetic activity is 
expected to be mainly at Quiet levels, with a chance of some 
Unsettled periods during the late hours of the day as the effect 
of a negative polarity coronal hole may start late on 23 October. 
Due to the effect of this coronal hole, global geomagnetic activity 
may increase to Unsettled to Active levels on UT day 24 October, 
returning to mostly Quiet to Unsettled with the possibility of 
some Active periods on UT day 25 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
25 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: MUFs were mainly near monthly predicted levels on UT 
day 22 October with periods of minor to mild depressions in some 
mid latitude areas. HF conditions are expected to remain mostly 
normal on UT day 23 October. Minor to moderate degradations in 
HF conditions and MUF depressions may be possible on UT days 
24 and 25 October due to expected rise in geomagnetic activity 
levels on these days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Oct   -14

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      0
Oct      -5
Nov      -5

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Oct   -10    Near predicted monthly values
24 Oct   -15    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
25 Oct   -12    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%

COMMENT: MUFs over the Australian and Antarctic regions were 
mainly near monthly predicted levels on UT day 22 October with 
some periods of minor to mild depressions in the Northern regions. 
HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal on UT day 
23 October. Minor to moderate degradations in HF conditions and 
MUF depressions may be possible on UT days 24 and 25 October 
in the Aus/NZ regions due to expected rise in geomagnetic activity 
levels on these days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Oct
Speed: 337 km/sec  Density:   15.1 p/cc  Temp:    52100 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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