[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 October 18 issued 2332 UT on 19 Oct 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 20 10:32:40 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 OCTOBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 OCTOBER - 22 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Oct:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Oct             21 Oct             22 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 19 October. 
There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the visible 
solar disc. For the next 3 UT days, 20-22 October, solar activity 
is expected to be at Very Low levels. No Earth-directed CMEs 
were observed in the available SOHO LASCO imagery up to 19/1600 
UT. The solar wind speed started the UT day 19 October at around 
320 km/s and is currently around 305 km/s. The IMF Bt mainly 
varied between 1-3 nT during the last 24 hours. The IMF Bz mainly 
varied in the range +/-2 nT. On UT day 20 October the solar wind 
is expected to become enhanced due to the arrival of high speed 
streams from the southern extension of the north polar coronal 
hole, then start to return to nominal values on 21 October as 
the influence of the coronal hole wanes.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Oct: Quiet

Estimated Indices 19 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11000001
      Cocos Island         0   01000000
      Darwin               1   11000011
      Townsville           1   10000011
      Learmonth            1   11000011
      Alice Springs        1   11000001
      Culgoora             0   01000000
      Gingin               1   10000011
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Launceston           0   01000000
      Hobart               0   00000000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                5   32210111
      Mawson              11   22101054
      Davis                8   23202041

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              0   0000 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Oct    16    Quiet to Active
21 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled
22 Oct     6    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels on UT day 19 
October across the Australian region. Quiet to Unsettled levels 
were observed in the Antarctic region with an isolated Active 
to Minor Storm period. On UT day 20 October, the geomagnetic 
activity is expected to increase from Quiet levels to Unsettled 
to Active levels due to the influence of a recurrent coronal 
hole. Geomagnetic activity is expected to return to Quiet to 
Unsettled levels on UT days 21-22 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
21 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
22 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Oct   -16

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      0
Oct      -5
Nov      -5

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Oct    -5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%
21 Oct   -10    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%
22 Oct   -10    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%

COMMENT: MUFs over the Australian and Antarctic regions were 
mainly near monthly predicted levels on UT day 19 October. The 
Niue Island region experienced Minor MUF depressions during the 
local day and local night. The Northern Australian region experienced 
Minor MUF depressions during the local night. Some sporadic E 
was observed. The three day outlook (UT days 20-22 October) is 
for MUFs to be at near monthly predicted levels, with the possibility 
of periods with Minor depressions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Oct
Speed: 357 km/sec  Density:    2.4 p/cc  Temp:    30000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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