[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 October 18 issued 2334 UT on 20 Oct 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 21 10:34:22 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 OCTOBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 OCTOBER - 23 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Oct:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Oct             22 Oct             23 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 20 October. 
There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the visible 
solar disc. For the next 3 UT days, 21-23 October, solar activity 
is expected to be at Very Low levels. No Earth-directed CMEs 
were observed in the available SOHO LASCO imagery up to 20/1712 
UT. The solar wind speed started the UT day 20 October at around 
305 km/s and is currently around 290 km/s. During the last 24 
hours, the IMF Bt started around 2-3 nT, then began increasing 
around 20/0300 UT and is currently varying between 4-5 nT. The 
IMF Bz is currently varying between +/-4 nT. On UT days 21-22 
October the solar wind is expected to remain at nominal values 
as the high speed streams from the southern extension of the 
north polar coronal hole appear to have missed Earth. The solar 
wind may become moderately enhanced on 23 October due to the 
influence of a southern-hemisphere negative-polarity coronal 
hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Oct: Quiet

Estimated Indices 20 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11001001
      Cocos Island         1   011000--
      Darwin               0   10000000
      Townsville           2   21001101
      Learmonth            2   02101001
      Alice Springs        1   11000---
      Culgoora             1   11001001
      Gingin               0   01000---
      Canberra             1   010010--
      Launceston           1   11101001
      Hobart               1   01101000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     0   01000---
      Casey               12   34310---
      Mawson               1   11000---
      Davis                4   03211011

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2   0000 0111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Oct     4    Quiet
22 Oct     4    Quiet
23 Oct    10    Quiet to Active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels on UT day 20 
October across the Australian region. Mainly Quiet levels were 
observed in the Antarctic region with an isolated Unsettled to 
Active period. On UT days 21-22 October, the geomagnetic activity 
is expected to be at Quiet levels. Geomagnetic activity may increase 
to Unsettled to Active levels on UT day 23 October due to the 
possible influence of a coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Oct   -11

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      0
Oct      -5
Nov      -5

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Oct   -10    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%
22 Oct   -10    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%
23 Oct   -10    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%

COMMENT: MUFs over the Australian and Antarctic regions were 
mainly near monthly predicted levels on UT day 20 October. The 
Niue Island region experienced Minor MUF depressions during the 
local day. The Northern Australian region experienced Minor MUF 
depressions during the local day and local night. The three day 
outlook (UT days 21-23 October) is for MUFs to be at near monthly 
predicted levels, with the possibility of periods with Minor 
depressions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.20E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Oct
Speed: 316 km/sec  Density:    5.5 p/cc  Temp:    21400 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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