[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 October 18 issued 2333 UT on 18 Oct 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 19 10:33:19 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 OCTOBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 OCTOBER - 21 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Oct: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Oct 20 Oct 21 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 18 October.
There are currently 2 active regions on the visible solar disc.
For the next 3 UT days, 19-21 October, solar activity is expected
to be at Very Low levels. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
in the available SOHO LASCO imagery up to 18/1416 UT. The solar
wind speed started the UT day 18 October at around 390 km/s and
continued to gradually decrease, currently around 320 km/s. The
IMF Bt mainly varied between 2-4 nT during the last 24 hours.
The IMF Bz mainly varied in the range -1 to +2 nT and was mostly
northward. On UT day 19 October the solar wind is expected to
become enhanced due to the arrival of high speed streams from
a small recurrent positive-polarity northern-hemisphere coronal
hole that is detached from the north polar coronal hole, followed
by a southern extension of the north polar coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Oct : A K
Australian Region 0 11000000
Cocos Island 1 11100000
Darwin 1 11100011
Townsville 0 11000000
Learmonth 1 11000001
Alice Springs 0 10000001
Culgoora 0 11000000
Gingin 0 11000000
Canberra 0 11000000
Launceston 0 11000000
Hobart 0 10000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Oct :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 4 23200001
Mawson 5 22200023
Davis 5 23300001
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 0120 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Oct 16 Quiet to Active
20 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels on UT day 18
October across the Australian region. Quiet to Unsettled levels
were observed in the Antarctic region. On UT day 19 October,
the geomagnetic activity is expected to increase from Quiet levels
to Unsettled to Active levels due to the influence of a recurrent
coronal hole. Geomagnetic activity is expected to return to Quiet
to Unsettled levels on UT days 20-21 October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
20 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Oct -15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 0
Oct -5
Nov -5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Oct 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
20 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
21 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
COMMENT: MUFs over the Niue Island, Australian and Antarctic
regions were mainly near monthly predicted levels on UT day 18
October. Both the Niue Island region and the Northern Australian
region experienced Minor MUF depressions during the local day.
Some sporadic E was observed. The three day outlook (UT days
19-21 October) is for MUFs to be at near monthly predicted levels,
with the possibility of periods with Minor depressions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Oct
Speed: 431 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 61400 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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