[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 October 18 issued 2332 UT on 17 Oct 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Thu Oct 18 10:32:30 EST 2018

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 OCTOBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 OCTOBER - 20 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Oct:  70/5

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Oct             19 Oct             20 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 17 October. 
There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the visible solar 
disc with a single sunspot. For the next 3 UT days, 18-20 October, 
solar activity is expected to be at Very Low levels. No Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed in the available SOHO LASCO imagery up to 
17/0624 UT and the STEREO A imagery up to 17/1724 UT. The solar 
wind speed started the UT day 17 October at around 480 km/s and 
continued to gradually decrease, currently around 390 km/s. The 
IMF Bt mainly varied between 2-5 nT during the last 24 hours. 
The IMF Bz mainly varied in the range +/-4 nT. The outlook for 
today, UT day 18 October, is for the solar wind to remain at 
nominal values, then it may become enhanced later on 18 October 
or early on 19 October. This enhancement is due to the expected 
arrival of high speed streams from a small recurrent positive-polarity 
northern-hemisphere coronal hole that is detached from the north 
polar coronal hole, followed by a southern extension of the north 
polar coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Oct: Quiet

Estimated Indices 17 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11200001
      Cocos Island         1   11100000
      Darwin               2   11200002
      Townsville           2   11200011
      Learmonth            2   21200001
      Alice Springs        2   11200001
      Culgoora             1   11200000
      Gingin               1   11100001
      Canberra             1   11200000
      Launceston           2   12200001
      Hobart               1   01200000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     0   01100000
      Casey               12   24521011
      Mawson               4   22211201
      Davis                8   23421201

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   2101 1111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Oct     8    Quiet, may increase to Unsettled to Active
19 Oct    16    Quiet to Active
20 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels on UT day 17 
October across the Australian region. Mainly Quiet to Active 
levels were observed in the Antarctic region. The outlook for 
UT day 18 October is for the geomagnetic activity to remain at 
Quiet levels, with a possible increase to Unsettled to Active 
levels later on UT day 18 October or early on 19 October due 
to the influence of a recurrent coronal hole. Geomagnetic activity 
is expected to return to Quiet to Unsettled levels on UT day 
20 October.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
19 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
20 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
17 Oct   -15

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      0
Oct      -5
Nov      -5

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Oct   -10    Near predicted monthly values
19 Oct     0    Near predicted monthly values
20 Oct    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs over the Niue Island, Australian and Antarctic 
regions were mainly near monthly predicted levels on UT day 17 
October. The Niue Island region experience Minor MUF enhancements 
during the local day. The Northern Australian region experienced 
Minor MUF depressions during the local day. Some sporadic E was 
observed. The three day outlook (UT days 18-20 October) is for 
MUFs to be at near monthly predicted levels.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Oct
Speed: 516 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:   171000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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