[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 October 18 issued 2333 UT on 16 Oct 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Wed Oct 17 10:33:10 EST 2018

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 OCTOBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 OCTOBER - 19 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Oct:  70/5

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Oct             18 Oct             19 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 16 October. 
There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the visible 
solar disc. For the next 3 UT days, 17-19 October, solar activity 
is expected to be at Very Low levels. No Earth-directed CMEs 
were observed in the available SOHO LASCO imagery up to 16/1501 
UT. The solar wind speed started the UT day 16 October at around 
590 km/s then gradually decreased, currently around 480 km/s. 
The IMF Bt mainly varied between 3-4 nT during the last 24 hours. 
The IMF Bz varied in the range -2 to +4 nT, with no significant 
period of southward Bz. The outlook for today, UT day 17 October, 
is for the solar wind to continue to return to nominal values 
as the effects of the coronal hole wanes. The solar wind may 
become enhanced later on 18 October or early on 19 October due 
the influence of a small recurrent positive-polarity coronal 
hole and an extension of the north polar coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Oct: Quiet

Estimated Indices 16 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   21121101
      Cocos Island         1   10111100
      Darwin               3   12111101
      Townsville           4   21121211
      Learmonth            4   21111211
      Alice Springs        3   11111201
      Culgoora             2   21110011
      Gingin               4   21122201
      Canberra             3   21121101
      Launceston           4   22121201
      Hobart               3   21121100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     2   20021100
      Casey               13   44332211
      Mawson              17   33232245
      Davis               11   33332311

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              29   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            27   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6   2112 2222     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Oct     5    Quiet
18 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled, possibly increasing to Active
19 Oct    16    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels on UT day 16 
October across the Australian region. Mainly Quiet to Active 
levels were observed in Antarctica. The outlook for UT day 17 
October is for the geomagnetic activity to remain at Quiet levels 
as the influence of the current coronal hole weakens. Geomagnetic 
activity may increase to Unsettled to Active levels later on 
UT day 18 October or early on 19 October due to the influence 
of another recurrent coronal hole.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
19 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
16 Oct   -13

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      0
Oct      -5
Nov      -5

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Oct   -10    Near predicted monthly values
18 Oct    -5    Near predicted monthly values
19 Oct    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs over the Niue Island, Australian and Antarctic 
regions were near monthly predicted levels on UT day 16 October. 
Some sporadic E was observed. The two day outlook (UT days 17-18 
October) is for similar conditions with MUFs near monthly predicted 
levels.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Oct
Speed: 573 km/sec  Density:    5.0 p/cc  Temp:   256000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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