[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 October 18 issued 2334 UT on 15 Oct 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 16 10:34:58 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 OCTOBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 OCTOBER - 18 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Oct:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Oct             17 Oct             18 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 15 October. 
There is currently one numbered sunspot region on the visible 
solar disc, located in the southeast quadrant. For the next 3 
UT days, 16-18 October, solar activity is expected to be at Very 
Low levels, with a remote chance of C-Class flares. No Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed in the available SOHO LASCO imagery up to 
15/1836 UT. The solar wind speed mainly varied between 540 to 
600 km/s over the last 24 hours, reaching 632 km/s at 15/1202 
UT, currently around 580 km/s. These moderately enhanced solar 
winds are in response to the high speed stream emanating from 
a recurrent negative-polarity coronal hole. The IMF Bt mainly 
varied between 2 to 5 nT during the last 24 hours. The IMF Bz 
varied in the range +/-4 nT, with no significant period of southward 
Bz. The outlook for today, UT day 16 October, is for the solar 
wind to start to return to nominal values as the effects of the 
coronal hole wanes. The influence of the coronal hole should 
continue to wane on UT days 17-18 October then the solar wind 
may become enhanced later on 18 October due the influence of 
a small recurrent positive-polarity coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 15 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   21123322
      Cocos Island         5   21112221
      Darwin               6   21122222
      Townsville           7   21122322
      Learmonth           10   31223332
      Alice Springs        8   21123322
      Culgoora             7   21122322
      Gingin              11   31123432
      Canberra             6   20122322
      Launceston          10   21223333
      Hobart               9   21123332    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     6   21122321
      Casey               17   44432332
      Mawson              36   53333466
      Davis               25   43433544

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              28   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   2101 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled
17 Oct     6    Quiet to Unsettled
18 Oct    11    Quiet to Active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet to Unsettled levels 
on UT day 15 October across the Australian region. Quiet to Active 
levels were observed in Antarctica, with some isolated Minor 
Storm periods. The outlook for UT days 16-17 October is for the 
geomagnetic activity to be at Quiet to Unsettled levels as the 
influence of the current coronal hole wanes. Geomagnetic activity 
may increase to Active levels later on UT day 18 October due 
to the influence of another recurrent coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
17 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Oct   -15

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      0
Oct      -5
Nov      -5

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Oct   -15    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%
17 Oct   -10    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%
18 Oct    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs over the Niue Island, Northern Australian and Antarctic 
regions were near monthly predicted levels on UT day 15 Oct. 
The Southern Australian region experienced Minor depressions 
during the local day and night. The two day outlook (UT days 
16-17 Oct) is for the MUFs to remain slightly depressed compared 
to monthly predicted values as the effects of the coronal hole 
wane.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Oct
Speed: 547 km/sec  Density:    6.3 p/cc  Temp:   220000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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