[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 October 18 issued 2334 UT on 15 Oct 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 16 10:34:58 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 OCTOBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 OCTOBER - 18 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Oct: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Oct 17 Oct 18 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 15 October.
There is currently one numbered sunspot region on the visible
solar disc, located in the southeast quadrant. For the next 3
UT days, 16-18 October, solar activity is expected to be at Very
Low levels, with a remote chance of C-Class flares. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the available SOHO LASCO imagery up to
15/1836 UT. The solar wind speed mainly varied between 540 to
600 km/s over the last 24 hours, reaching 632 km/s at 15/1202
UT, currently around 580 km/s. These moderately enhanced solar
winds are in response to the high speed stream emanating from
a recurrent negative-polarity coronal hole. The IMF Bt mainly
varied between 2 to 5 nT during the last 24 hours. The IMF Bz
varied in the range +/-4 nT, with no significant period of southward
Bz. The outlook for today, UT day 16 October, is for the solar
wind to start to return to nominal values as the effects of the
coronal hole wanes. The influence of the coronal hole should
continue to wane on UT days 17-18 October then the solar wind
may become enhanced later on 18 October due the influence of
a small recurrent positive-polarity coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 15 Oct : A K
Australian Region 8 21123322
Cocos Island 5 21112221
Darwin 6 21122222
Townsville 7 21122322
Learmonth 10 31223332
Alice Springs 8 21123322
Culgoora 7 21122322
Gingin 11 31123432
Canberra 6 20122322
Launceston 10 21223333
Hobart 9 21123332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Oct :
Macquarie Island 6 21122321
Casey 17 44432332
Mawson 36 53333466
Davis 25 43433544
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 2101 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
17 Oct 6 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Oct 11 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet to Unsettled levels
on UT day 15 October across the Australian region. Quiet to Active
levels were observed in Antarctica, with some isolated Minor
Storm periods. The outlook for UT days 16-17 October is for the
geomagnetic activity to be at Quiet to Unsettled levels as the
influence of the current coronal hole wanes. Geomagnetic activity
may increase to Active levels later on UT day 18 October due
to the influence of another recurrent coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Oct Normal Normal Normal
18 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Oct -15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 0
Oct -5
Nov -5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Oct -15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
17 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
18 Oct -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs over the Niue Island, Northern Australian and Antarctic
regions were near monthly predicted levels on UT day 15 Oct.
The Southern Australian region experienced Minor depressions
during the local day and night. The two day outlook (UT days
16-17 Oct) is for the MUFs to remain slightly depressed compared
to monthly predicted values as the effects of the coronal hole
wane.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Oct
Speed: 547 km/sec Density: 6.3 p/cc Temp: 220000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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