[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 October 18 issued 2330 UT on 14 Oct 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 15 10:30:21 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 OCTOBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 OCTOBER - 17 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Oct: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Oct 16 Oct 17 Oct
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 14 October.
There is currently two numbered sunspot regions on the visible
solar disc, both located in the southeast quadrant. For the next
3 UT days, 15-17 October, solar activity is expected to be at
Very Low to Low levels, with a remote chance of C-Class flares.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available SOHO LASCO
imagery up to 14/1800 UT. The solar wind speed increased over
the last 24 hours, reaching to near 600 km/s at 14/1900 UT, currently
around 550 km/s. These moderately enhanced solar winds are in
response to the high speed stream emanating from a recurrent
negative-polarity coronal hole. The IMF Bt was mostly steady
near 7 nT during the last 24 hours. The IMF Bz varied in the
range +6/-3 nT, with no significant period of southward Bz. The
outlook for today (UT day 15 October) is for the solar wind to
remain near moderately elevated levels as the effects of the
coronal hole persists. The influence of the coronal hole should
start to wane on UT day 16 October.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Oct : A K
Australian Region 5 21121212
Cocos Island 3 11121111
Darwin 4 21121211
Townsville 5 21121212
Learmonth 5 21121212
Alice Springs 5 21121212
Culgoora 4 11121212
Gingin 5 21121212
Canberra 4 11121212
Launceston 6 21132212
Hobart 4 11121202
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Oct :
Macquarie Island 5 21132101
Casey 16 34433223
Mawson 15 33423224
Davis 17 24533123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 56 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 14 1210 1544
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
17 Oct 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly at Quiet levels on UT
day 14 October across the Australian region. Quiet to Minor Storm
levels were observed in Antarctica. The two day outlook (UT day
15-16 October) is for the geomagnetic activity to be mostly at
Quiet to Unsettled levels and occasionally may reach Active levels.
The forecasted disturbed conditions are because the Earth is
currently under the influence of high speed solar wind streams
associated with a recurrent coronal hole. In such elevated solar
wind conditions, geomagnetic activity could reach Active levels
if IMF Bz turns southward for prolonged periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Oct Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Oct Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
16 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Normal to fair HF conditions were observed on UT day
14 October over the dayside low-latitude and southern high latitude
region. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
three UT days, 15-17 October, over the mid-latitude regions.
Mildly depressed MUFs are likely over equatorial and southern
high latitudes regions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Oct -16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 0
Oct -5
Nov -5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Oct -20 Near predicted monthly values
16 Oct -15 Near predicted monthly values
17 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Overall, MUFs over the Australian region were slightly
depressed to near monthly predicted levels on UT day 14 Oct.
The highest MUF depression of 20% below monthly predicted levels
occurred over the North Australian and Niue Island during local
day. The outlook for today (UT day 15 Oct) is for the MUFs to
remain slightly depressed compared to monthly predicted values
as the effects of the coronal hole persist.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.70E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:28%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Oct
Speed: 383 km/sec Density: 9.4 p/cc Temp: 62800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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