[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 November 18 issued 2330 UT on 28 Nov 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 29 10:30:17 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 NOVEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 NOVEMBER - 01 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Nov:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Nov             30 Nov             01 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 28 November. 
There is currently no sunspot group on the solar disc visible 
from the Earthside. No earth directed CMEs were observed in the 
available LASCO imagery up to 28/2112 UT. Over the last 24 hours, 
the solar wind speed showed a gradual decrease from 430 km/s 
to around 390 km/s by 2300 UT. During this period, the total 
IMF (Bt) varied mostly between 3 nT and 6 nT and the north south 
component of IMF (Bz) varied between +3/-2 nT, staying positive 
most of the times. The particle density varied between 4 and 
9 ppcc on this day. Solar wind speed is expected to further decline 
through UT day 29 November, stay at nominal levels (300 km/s 
to 350 km/s) on UT day 30 November and again increase on 1 December. 
The increase in the solar wind speed on 1 December is due an 
expected effect of a large recurrent coronal hole. The solar 
activity is expected to stay Very Low for the next three days 
(UT days 29 November to 1 December).

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Nov: Quiet

Estimated Indices 28 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11000111
      Cocos Island         1   11000100
      Darwin               2   11100111
      Townsville           3   120-----
      Learmonth            2   21000112
      Alice Springs        2   11000102
      Culgoora             2   11100121
      Canberra             0   11000000
      Launceston           3   12100122
      Hobart               3   12100121    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     1   10000021
      Casey               11   44321022
      Mawson              10   23211015
      Davis                6   23321101

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              NA
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   0000 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Nov     5    Quiet
30 Nov     4    Quiet
01 Dec    25    Quiet to minor storm

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 28 November. Global geomagnetic conditions are 
expected to stay mostly at quiet levels for the next two UT days 
(29 to 30 November). Due to the effect of a high speed solar 
wind stream from a large and recurrent positive polarity coronal 
hole global geomagnetic conditions may rise to minor storm levels 
on UT day 1 December.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
30 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
01 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-poor    Fair-poor

COMMENT: Due to the very low levels of ionising radiation from 
the Sun, MUF depressions of 15 to 30% were observed on UT day 
28 November. Similar levels of MUF depressions may be expected 
for the next 2 days (UT days 29 to 30 November) as the levels 
of ionising radiation are likely to stay at very low levels throughout 
this period. Further MUF depressions are likely on UT day 1 December 
due to expected rise in geomagnetic activity levels on this day 
and due to the continued very low levels of ionising radiation 
from the Sun.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Nov   -37

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      -17
Nov      -7
Dec      -7

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Nov   -30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
30 Nov   -30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
01 Dec   -35    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                40%

COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 18 was issued on 26 November 
and is current for 27-29 Nov. Due to the very low levels of ionising 
radiation from the Sun, MUF depressions of 15 to 30% were observed 
across the Australian region on UT day 28 November. Similar levels 
of MUF depressions in the Australian region may be expected for 
the next 2 days (UT days 29 to 30 November) as the levels of 
ionising radiation are likely to stay at very low levels throughout 
this period. Further MUF depressions are likely on UT day 1 December 
due to expected rise in geomagnetic activity levels on this day 
and due to the continued very low levels of ionising radiation 
from the Sun.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Nov
Speed: 372 km/sec  Density:    9.6 p/cc  Temp:    39200 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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