[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 November 18 issued 2330 UT on 27 Nov 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 28 10:30:18 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 NOVEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 NOVEMBER - 30 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Nov: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Nov 29 Nov 30 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 27 November.
There is currently no sunspot group on the solar disc visible
from the Earthside. No earth directed CMEs were observed in the
available LASCO imagery up to 27/2206 UT. Over the last 24 hours,
the solar wind speed showed a gradual increase from 290 km/s
to around 425 km/s by 2300 UT. During this period, the total
IMF (Bt) varied mostly between 3 nT and 7 nT and the north south
component of IMF (Bz) varied between +5/-5 nT. The particle density
varied between 5 and 15 ppcc on this day. Solar wind speed is
expected to stay slightly enhanced to between around 350 and
400 km/s on UT day 28 November and then gradually decline to
normal levels. The solar activity is expected to stay Very Low
for the next three days (UT days 28 to 30 November).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Nov : A K
Australian Region 5 12012222
Cocos Island 5 22111221
Darwin 5 12112222
Townsville 7 12122223
Learmonth 5 11022222
Alice Springs 5 12012222
Culgoora 5 12012222
Gingin 1 01------
Canberra 2 02001111
Launceston 6 12112322
Hobart 5 12012222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Nov :
Macquarie Island 2 01001112
Casey 11 23322323
Mawson 15 41113344
Davis 16 22223543
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Nov :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Nov 5 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
29 Nov 4 Quiet
30 Nov 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 27 November. Global geomagnetic conditions are
expected to stay mostly at quiet levels for the next three UT
days (28 to 30 November) with a small possibility of some unsettled
periods on 28 November.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
29 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
30 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Due to the very low levels of ionising radiation from
the Sun, MUF depressions of 15 to 35% were observed on UT day
27 November. Similar levels of MUF depressions may be expected
for the next 3 days (UT days 28 to 30 November) as the levels
of ionising radiation are likely to stay at very low levels throughout
this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Nov -39
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -17
Nov -7
Dec -7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Nov -35 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
35%
29 Nov -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
30 Nov -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 18 was issued on 26 November
and is current for 27-29 Nov. Due to the very low levels of ionising
radiation from the Sun, MUF depressions of 15 to 35% were observed
across the Australian region on UT day 27 November. Similar levels
of MUF depressions in the Australian region may be expected for
the next 3 days (UT days 28 to 30 November) as the levels of
ionising radiation are likely to stay at very low levels throughout
this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Nov
Speed: 319 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 15300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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