[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 November 18 issued 2330 UT on 26 Nov 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 27 10:30:21 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 NOVEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 NOVEMBER - 29 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Nov: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Nov 28 Nov 29 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 26 November.
There is currently no sunspot group on the solar disc visible
from the Earthside. No earth directed CMEs were observed in the
available LASCO imagery up to 26/2048 UT. Over the last 24 hours,
the solar wind speed varied between 300 km/s and 350 km/s, showing
a gradual decline. During this period, the total IMF (Bt) varied
mostly between 0.5 nT and 6 nT and the north south component
of IMF (Bz) varied between +4/-3 nT. The particle density varied
between 4 and 8 ppcc on this day. Solar wind speed is expected
to stay at nominal levels (~300 km/s) for the next three UT days
(27 to 29 November) and the solar activity is expected to stay
Very Low on these days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Nov : A K
Australian Region 1 11100001
Cocos Island 1 10------
Darwin 2 21100011
Townsville 1 11100011
Learmonth 2 22000001
Alice Springs 0 11000000
Culgoora 1 01100001
Gingin 1 2000----
Canberra 0 01000000
Launceston 2 12100002
Hobart 1 11100001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Nov :
Macquarie Island 1 11000001
Casey 8 24321012
Mawson 6 43100001
Davis 5 23211002
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 1001 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Nov 6 Mostly Quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
28 Nov 5 Quiet
29 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 26 November. Global geomagnetic conditions are
expected to stay mostly at quiet levels for the next three UT
days (27 to 29 November) with a small possibility of some unsettled
periods on 27 November.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
28 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
29 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Due to the very low levels of ionising radiation from
the Sun, MUF depressions of 15 to 30% were observed on UT day
26 November. Similar levels of MUF depressions may be expected
for the next 3 days (UT days 27 to 29 November) as the levels
of ionising radiation are likely to stay at very low levels throughout
this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Nov -35
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -17
Nov -7
Dec -7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Nov -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
28 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
29 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Due to the very low levels of ionising radiation from
the Sun, MUF depressions of 15 to 30% were observed across the
Australian region on UT day 26 November. Similar levels of MUF
depressions in the Australian region may be expected for the
next 3 days (UT days 27 to 29 November) as the levels of ionising
radiation are likely to stay at very low levels throughout this
period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Nov
Speed: 354 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: 27400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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