[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 November 18 issued 2330 UT on 29 Nov 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 30 10:30:18 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 NOVEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 NOVEMBER - 02 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Nov: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Nov 01 Dec 02 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 29 November.
There is currently no sunspot group on the solar disc visible
from the Earthside. No earth directed CMEs were observed in the
available LASCO imagery up to 29/1830 UT. Over the last 24 hours,
the solar wind speed stayed in the range of around 360 km/s to
400 km/s. During this period, the total IMF (Bt) varied mostly
between 2 nT and 4 nT and the north south component of IMF (Bz)
fluctuated between +3/-3 nT. The particle density varied between
4 and 5 ppcc on this day. Solar wind speed is expected to stay
mostly at nominal levels (300 km/s to 350 km/s) on UT day 30
November and then increase on 1 December. The increase in the
solar wind speed on 1 December is expected due to the effect
of a large recurrent positive polarity coronal hole. The solar
activity is expected to stay Very Low for the next three days
(UT days 30 November to 2 December).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Nov : A K
Australian Region 1 11100001
Cocos Island 1 11100000
Darwin 2 11100002
Townsville 4 31110012
Learmonth 2 21100001
Alice Springs 1 10000002
Culgoora 2 11100002
Canberra 0 10000000
Launceston 2 21110002
Hobart 2 11100002
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Nov :
Macquarie Island 1 10010001
Casey 7 33321002
Mawson 8 41210004
Davis 6 32311002
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin NA
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 1000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Nov 5 Quiet
01 Dec 25 Quiet to minor storm
02 Dec 20 Quiet to minor storm
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 26 was issued on 28 November
and is current for 1 Dec only. Quiet geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 29 November. Global
geomagnetic conditions are expected to stay mostly at quiet levels
on UT day 30 November. Due to the effect of a high speed solar
wind stream from a large and recurrent positive polarity coronal
hole global geomagnetic conditions can rise to minor storm levels
on UT days 1 and 2 December.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
01 Dec Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
02 Dec Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Due to the very low levels of ionising radiation from
the Sun, MUF depressions of 15 to 20% were observed on UT day
29 November. Similar levels of MUF depressions may be expected
on UT day 30 November as the levels of ionising radiation are
likely to stay at very low levels on this day. Further MUF depressions
are likely on UT days 1 and 2 December due to expected rise in
geomagnetic activity levels on these days and due to the continued
very low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Nov -30
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -17
Nov -7
Dec -7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Nov -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
01 Dec -35 10 to 40% below predicted monthly values
02 Dec -35 10 to 40% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Due to the very low levels of ionising radiation from
the Sun, MUF depressions of 15 to 20% were observed across the
Australian region on UT day 29 November. Similar levels of MUF
depressions in the Australian region may be expected on UT day
30 November as the levels of ionising radiation are likely to
stay at very low levels on this day. Further MUF depressions
in this region are likely on UT days 1 and 2 December due to
expected rise in geomagnetic activity levels on these days and
due to the continued very low levels of ionising radiation from
the Sun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Nov
Speed: 398 km/sec Density: 6.2 p/cc Temp: 47000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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