[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 November 18 issued 2330 UT on 22 Nov 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 23 10:30:18 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 NOVEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 NOVEMBER - 25 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Nov: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Nov 24 Nov 25 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low for the UT day of 22
Nov. There are currently no numbered sunspot regions on the visible
solar disc. Solar activity is expected to stay Very Low for the
next three days. No earth directed CMEs were observed in the
available LASCO imagery. Over the last 24 hour, the solar wind
speed ranged between 350km/s and 420km/s. The total IMF (Bt)stayed
mostly ~ 5nT. The north south component of IMF (Bz) varied between
+/-4nT, mostly positive. Solar wind parameters are expected to
be at nominal levels for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Nov : A K
Australian Region 2 10120110
Cocos Island 1 00110110
Darwin 2 10120101
Townsville 3 10221111
Learmonth 3 21120110
Alice Springs 1 00120001
Culgoora 2 11120100
Gingin 2 10120110
Canberra 0 00110000
Launceston 3 11221110
Hobart 1 10110100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Nov :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 7 23321121
Mawson 8 42222112
Davis 7 23322111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1311 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Nov 7 Quiet
24 Nov 5 Quiet
25 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region for 22 Nov with Unsettled to Active periods for Antarctic
region. Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected in the
Australian region for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
24 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
25 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Near predicted monthly values to slightly depressed
MUFs may be observed during the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Nov -27
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -17
Nov -7
Dec -7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
24 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
25 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: MUFs ranged from minor depressions to near predicted
monthly values during 22 Nov. Similar levels of ionospheric support
expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Nov
Speed: 407 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 64900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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