[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 November 18 issued 2330 UT on 23 Nov 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 24 10:30:18 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 NOVEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 NOVEMBER - 26 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Nov: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Nov 25 Nov 26 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low for the UT day of 23
Nov. There are currently no numbered sunspot regions on the visible
solar disc. Solar activity is expected to stay Very Low for the
next three days. No earth directed CMEs were observed in the
available LASCO imagery. Over the last 24 hour, the solar wind
speed ranged between 350km/s and 400km/s. The total IMF (Bt)stayed
mostly ~ 5nT. The north south component of IMF (Bz) varied between
+/-3nT, mostly neutral. Solar wind parameters are expected to
remain near nominal levels for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Nov : A K
Australian Region 2 11120000
Cocos Island 1 11110000
Darwin 2 21121000
Townsville 3 21121010
Learmonth 2 11120001
Alice Springs 2 11120000
Culgoora 1 11110010
Gingin 2 21120000
Canberra 1 01110000
Launceston 3 12221010
Hobart 2 12210000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Nov :
Macquarie Island 0 01000000
Casey 10 34331110
Mawson 9 24221213
Davis 7 23231111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 1000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Nov 7 Quiet
25 Nov 7 Quiet
26 Nov 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region for 23 Nov with Unsettled to Active periods for Antarctic
region. Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected in the
Australian region for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
25 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
26 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Near predicted monthly values to mildly depressed MUFs
may be observed during the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Nov -34
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -17
Nov -7
Dec -7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
25 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
26 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Southern AUS/NZ regions MUFs ranged from minor depressions
to near predicted monthly values during 23 Nov. MUFs depressions
ranging between 10%-30% for Northern AUS and Niue Island regions.
Similar levels of ionospheric support expected for the next 3
days due to continued very low levels of ionising radiation from
the Sun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Nov
Speed: 382 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 39500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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