[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 November 18 issued 2330 UT on 21 Nov 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 22 10:30:17 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 NOVEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 NOVEMBER - 24 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Nov: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Nov 23 Nov 24 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low for the UT day of 21
Nov. There are currently no numbered sunspot regions on the visible
solar disc. Solar activity is expected to stay Very Low for the
next three days. No earth directed CMEs were observed in the
available LASCO imagery. Over the last 24 hour, the solar wind
speed ranged between 400km/s and 450km/s and is currently ~420km/s.
The total IMF (Bt) ranged from 10 to 2 nT. The north south component
of IMF (Bz) varied mostly between +/-5nT with no sustained southward
excursions. Solar wind parameters are expected to be at nominal
levels for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Nov : A K
Australian Region 4 12221101
Cocos Island 3 12221100
Darwin 3 12221001
Townsville 4 22221011
Learmonth 4 22221101
Alice Springs 3 12221001
Culgoora 4 12221011
Gingin 3 11221100
Canberra 1 01210000
Launceston 4 12221111
Hobart 3 12220101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Nov :
Macquarie Island 1 02110000
Casey 16 34532122
Mawson 10 34222113
Davis 11 34332102
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2311 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Nov 7 Quiet
23 Nov 5 Quiet
24 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region for 21 Nov with Unsettled to Active periods for Antarctic
region early UT day. Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions are
expected in the Australian region for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
23 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
24 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to Moderate MUF depressions may occur for the
next 24 hours due to low levels of ionising radiation.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Nov -33
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -17
Nov -7
Dec -7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Nov -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
23 Nov -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
24 Nov -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 17 was issued on 20 November
and is current for 20-22 Nov. Minor to Moderate MUF depressions
across all latitude bands on UT day 21 Nov. Similar levels of
depressed ionospheric support expected for the next three days
due to continued very low levels of ionising radiation from the
Sun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Nov
Speed: 405 km/sec Density: 8.6 p/cc Temp: 52300 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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