[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 November 18 issued 2330 UT on 20 Nov 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 21 10:30:18 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 NOVEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 NOVEMBER - 23 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Nov: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Nov 22 Nov 23 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low for the UT day of 20
Nov. There are currently no numbered sunspot regions on the visible
solar disc. Solar activity is expected to stay Very Low for the
next three days. No earth directed CMEs were observed in the
available LASCO imagery. Over the last 24 hour, the solar wind
speed increased from 320 to 450km/s and is currently near 400
km/s. Over the same period the total IMF (Bt) ranged from 12
to 5 nT and is currently near 7 nT. Bz varied between +10/-8nT
with no significant period of southward Bz. These moderately
enhanced solar winds are in response to the high speed stream
emanating from a weak negative polarity coronal hole. Expect
the solar wind stream to remain slightly elevated over the next
24 hours due to coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 20 Nov : A K
Australian Region 6 23220212
Cocos Island 4 22110121
Darwin 6 23110222
Townsville 7 23220222
Learmonth 6 23120222
Alice Springs 7 23220222
Culgoora 6 23220212
Gingin 4 22120112
Canberra 2 12110101
Launceston 6 23220212
Hobart 4 22220111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Nov :
Macquarie Island 2 12120001
Casey 20 46430112
Mawson 10 34321112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 7 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1100 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Nov 12 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Nov 7 Quiet
23 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region for 20 Nov with isolated Active to Storm
periods for Antarctic regions early UT day. Quiet to Unsettled
conditions with a chance of Active periods for high latitudes
expected for the next 24 hours due to minor coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
22 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
23 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to Moderate MUFS depressions may occur for the
next 24 hours due to current weak geomagnetic activity and low
EUV levels.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Nov -25
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -17
Nov -7
Dec -7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Nov -30 Depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
22 Nov -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
23 Nov -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 17 was issued on 20 November
and is current for 20-22 Nov. Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ
regions MUFs ranged from minor depressions to near predicted
monthly values during 20 Nov. MUFs depressions ranging between
10%-40% during local day for Niue Island. Similar levels of ionospheric
support expected for the next 3 days due to continued very low
levels of ionising radiation from the Sun and current weak geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Nov
Speed: 334 km/sec Density: 13.4 p/cc Temp: 46700 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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