[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 November 18 issued 2330 UT on 07 Nov 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 8 10:30:18 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 NOVEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 NOVEMBER - 10 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Nov:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Nov             09 Nov             10 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 07 November. 
There are currently no numbered sunspot regions on the solar 
disc visible from the Earthside. No Earth-directed CMEs were 
observed in the available LASCO imagery up to 7/2112 UT. Solar 
activity is expected to stay at Very Low levels for the next 
three UT days. Over the last 24 hours the solar wind ranged from 
460 km/s to 400 km/s and is currently near 410 km/s. Expect the 
solar wind to remain at nominal levels today. The total IMF (Bt) 
remained near 4-7 nT over the last 24 hours. Bz varied between 
+/-5 nT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 07 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22312111
      Cocos Island         3   20101121
      Darwin               4   22211011
      Townsville           6   22312111
      Learmonth            5   21212112
      Alice Springs        3   12211011
      Culgoora             5   12311111
      Gingin               5   21212112
      Canberra             5   12312111
      Launceston           8   22412122
      Hobart               5   12312111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     8   12413111
      Casey               10   33321123
      Mawson              26   44322165
      Davis               18   23322136

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              7   1422 2002     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Nov     6    Quiet
09 Nov    16    Active
10 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 25 was issued on 7 November 
and is current for 9-10 Nov. Geomagnetic activity in the Australian 
region ranged from Quiet to Unsettled levels for the UT day, 
07 November. Expect mostly Quiet levels for today, 08 November. 
Midway through the UT day, 09 November expect geomagnetic activity 
to increase from Quiet to Unsettle to Active levels at mid-high 
latitudes and likely isolated periods of Minor Storm levels at 
the higher latitudes such as Tasmania due to a high speed solar 
wind stream associated with a negative polarity recurrent coronal 
hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
10 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted to moderately depressed on 
UT day, 07 November, due to low levels of ionising radiation, 
particularly during local daytime hours. Expect this trend to 
continue during the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Nov   -34

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      -17
Nov      -7
Dec      -7

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Nov   -20    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                20%
09 Nov   -20    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                20%
10 Nov   -20    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%

COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 13 was issued on 7 November 
and is current for 8-10 Nov. MUFs were depressed by 15-20% over 
much of the Australian and Antarctic regions during UT day, 07 
November, due to continued very low levels of ionising radiation. 
Expect near predicted MUFs to 20% depressions on 08-09 November 
due to continued very low levels of ionising radiation. On 10 
November expect deeper depressions to 30% and some degradation 
in HF communication induced by an increase in geomagnetic activity 
on 09 November leading to ionospheric storming.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Nov
Speed: 471 km/sec  Density:    5.9 p/cc  Temp:   128000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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