[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 November 18 issued 2330 UT on 06 Nov 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 7 10:30:18 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 NOVEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 NOVEMBER - 09 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Nov: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Nov 08 Nov 09 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 06 November.
There are currently no numbered sunspot regions on the solar
disc visible from the Earthside. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in the available LASCO imagery up to 6/2136 UT. Solar
activity is expected to stay at Very Low levels for the next
three UT days. Over the last 24 hours the solar wind decreased
from 545 km/s to 420 km/s and is currently 425 km/s. Expect the
solar wind to remain at nominal levels today. The total IMF (Bt)
remained near 3-5 nT over the last 24 hours. Bz varied between
+/-3 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 06 Nov : A K
Australian Region 6 22132112
Cocos Island 3 12121101
Darwin 6 22132112
Townsville 6 22132112
Learmonth 6 22132112
Alice Springs 6 22132112
Culgoora 6 22132112
Gingin 6 21132211
Canberra 6 22131112
Launceston 8 22242112
Hobart 6 22232102
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Nov :
Macquarie Island 15 12363100
Casey 14 35332212
Mawson 16 34232215
Davis 12 24333222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Nov :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 3 (Quiet)
Gingin 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 18 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 22
Planetary 30 4655 3332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Nov 6 Quiet
08 Nov 6 Quiet
09 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity in the Australian region ranged
from Quiet to Unsettled levels for the UT day, 06 November, with
the exception of Tasmania which had a three hour period of Active
levels mid way through the UT day. Expect mostly Quiet levels
for the next three days with a possible increase in geomagnetic
activity late in the UT day on 09 November due to a high speed
solar wind stream associated with a negative polarity recurrent
coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Nov Normal Normal Normal
08 Nov Normal Normal Normal
09 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs were moderately depressed with minor degradations
at higher latitudes on UT day, 06 November, due to ionospheric
storming. Storming should subside today. Due to low number of
active regions on the Sun, expect the low levels of ionising
radiation to continue with possible minor depressions to continue
on 07-09 November.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Nov -36
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -17
Nov -7
Dec -7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Nov -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
08 Nov -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
09 Nov -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: MUFs were depressed by 15-25% over much of the Australian
and Antarctic regions during UT day, 06 November, due to minor
ionospheric storming and continued very low levels of ionising
radiation. As ionospheric storming subsides expect near predicted
to minor depressions due to continued low levels of ionising
radiation for the next three days. Depressions mostly likely
in the local daytime hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Nov
Speed: 538 km/sec Density: 7.0 p/cc Temp: 198000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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