[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 November 18 issued 2328 UT on 08 Nov 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 9 10:28:37 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 NOVEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 NOVEMBER - 11 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Nov: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Nov 10 Nov 11 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 08 November.
There is currently one sunspot on the the solar disc (N27W17)
visible from the Earthside. This sunspot is a cycle 25 sunspot
due to its higher latitude and positive lead polarity. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery up to 8/2112
UT. Solar activity is expected to stay at Very Low levels for
the next three UT days. Over the last 24 hours the solar wind
ranged from 425 km/s to 510 km/s and is currently near 470 km/s.
Expect the solar wind to increase in the second half of the UT
day, 09 November, due to expected high speed solar wind stream
(HSS) associated with the negative polarity coronal hole becoming
geoeffective. The total IMF (Bt) remained near 3-8 nT over the
last 24 hours. Bz varied between +6/-7 nT.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 08 Nov : A K
Australian Region 5 22131111
Cocos Island 4 11131110
Darwin 4 22121111
Townsville 6 23131210
Learmonth 6 22131221
Alice Springs 4 22120111
Culgoora 6 23131111
Gingin 7 22131222
Canberra 5 23130110
Launceston 8 23231221
Hobart 5 22230110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Nov :
Macquarie Island 8 12250110
Casey 15 34442221
Mawson 26 55333235
Davis 20 45343223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 5 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9 2341 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Nov 16 Active
10 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 25 was issued on 7 November
and is current for 9-10 Nov. Geomagnetic activity in the Australian
region ranged from Quiet to Unsettled levels for the UT day,
08 November. For the first half of the UT day 09 November expect
mostly Quiet levels, however, by the second half of the UT day
expect geomagnetic activity to increase to Unsettle to Active
levels at mid to high latitudes and likely isolated periods of
Minor Storm levels at the higher latitudes such as Tasmania due
to a HSS.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
10 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted to moderately depressed on
UT day, 08 November, due to low levels of ionising radiation,
particularly in the southern hemisphere. Expect this trend to
continue during the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Nov -33
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -17
Nov -7
Dec -7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Nov -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
10 Nov -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
11 Nov -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 13 was issued on 7 November
and is current for 8-10 Nov. MUFs were depressed by 15-25% over
much of the Australian and Antarctic regions during UT day, 08
November, due to continued very low levels of ionising radiation.
Expect near predicted MUFs to 20% depressions today due to continued
very low levels of ionising radiation. On 10-11 November expect
deeper depressions to 30% and some degradation in HF communication
induced by an increase in geomagnetic activity on 09 November
leading to ionospheric storming.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Nov
Speed: 420 km/sec Density: 6.1 p/cc Temp: 77800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list