[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 November 18 issued 2330 UT on 04 Nov 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 5 10:30:23 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 NOVEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 NOVEMBER - 07 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Nov:  67/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Nov             06 Nov             07 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 4 November. 
There are currently no numbered sunspot regions on the solar 
disc visible from the Earthside. No Earth-directed CMEs were 
observed in the available latest LASCO imagery. On UT day 4 October, 
the solar wind speed stayed between 335 and 350 km/s during the 
first half of the day and then showed a gradual increase to nearly 
465 km/s by 22.30 UT. This increase is consistent with an expected 
rise due to the effect of a large positive polarity coronal hole. 
On this day, the total IMF (Bt) also increased from 4 nT at the 
beginning of the day to nearly 16 nT by 22.30 UT. During this 
day, Bz varied mostly between +/-4 nT during the first half of 
the day and then stayed mostly negative between -4 nT and -11 
nT, showing fluctuations between +/-11 nT after 1800 UT. Due 
to the effect of this large recurrent trans-equatorial coronal 
hole, the solar wind speed may reach up to around 600 km/s on 
UT day 5 November and stay elevated on 5 and possibly 6 November. 
Solar activity is expected to stay at Very Low levels for the 
next three UT days, 5-7 November.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Nov: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 04 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region      10   12211334
      Cocos Island         7   12111233
      Darwin               8   22211233
      Townsville          12   12221344
      Learmonth           11   12222334
      Alice Springs        9   01211334
      Culgoora             9   11211334
      Gingin               9   11111343
      Canberra            10   11212334
      Launceston          14   22322344
      Hobart              10   12212343    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Nov :
      Macquarie Island    15   12113543
      Casey               17   44421234
      Mawson              22   22112456

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              2   2200 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Nov    18    Unsettled to Active, isolated Minor Storm periods 
                possible
06 Nov    12    Mostly Unsettled to Active
07 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity in the Australian region increased 
from Quiet to Active levels on UT day 4 November due to the expected 
effect of a CIR followed by a high speed solar wind stream from 
a large positive polarity coronal hole. Global geomagnetic activity 
may stay high up to Unsettled to Active levels with a small possibility 
of isolated minor storm periods on UT day 5 November and then 
show a slow decline from Active to Unsettled levels through 6 
November and return to Quiet to Unsettled levels on 7 November.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Nov      Normal-fair    Fair           Fair
06 Nov      Normal-fair    Fair           Fair
07 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: MUFs were mainly near the monthly predicted levels on 
UT day 4 November with minor to mild depressions observed in 
some mid-latitude regions and minor to mild enhancements in low-latitude 
regions. Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in 
HF conditions may be expected for the next three days due to 
some possible enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels on 
5 and 6 November and due to the continued very low levels of 
ionising radiation.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Nov   -20

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      -17
Nov      -7
Dec      -7

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Nov   -30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to 
                40%
06 Nov   -25    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to 
                30%
07 Nov   -20    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%

COMMENT: MUFs were mainly near the monthly predicted levels over 
Australian and Antarctic region during UT day 4 November with 
minor to mild depressions observed in Northern Australian regions 
and minor to mild enhancements further north. Minor to moderate 
MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions in the Aus/NZ 
regions may be expected for the next three days due to some possible 
enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels on 5 and 6 November 
and due to the continued very low levels of ionising radiation.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Nov
Speed: 343 km/sec  Density:    9.3 p/cc  Temp:    32800 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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