[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 November 18 issued 2330 UT on 03 Nov 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 4 10:30:19 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 NOVEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 NOVEMBER - 06 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Nov: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Nov 05 Nov 06 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 3 November.
There are currently no numbered sunspot regions on the visible
solar disc. Solar activity is expected to stay at Very Low levels
for the next three UT days, 4-6 November. No Earth-directed CMEs
were observed in the available latest LASCO imagery up to 03/2224
UT. During the last 24 hours the solar wind speed fluctuated
between 330 km/s and 360 km/s, IMF Bt varied mostly between 3
nT and 5 nT, and IMF Bz fluctuated between +4/-4 nT. On 4 November
the solar wind speed is expected to increase because a large
recurrent trans-equatorial coronal hole is expected to reach
geoeffective location on the solar disc. The approaching coronal
hole has produced solar winds reaching 650 km/s at the location
of STEREO-A. Similar effects are expected at Earth.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Nov : A K
Australian Region 1 11001101
Cocos Island 1 10001001
Darwin 1 10001101
Townsville 2 11011111
Learmonth 2 11101102
Alice Springs 1 10001101
Culgoora 2 11001111
Gingin 2 20010102
Canberra 1 11000001
Launceston 3 21110112
Hobart 1 11100011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Nov :
Macquarie Island 0 11000000
Casey 9 34320112
Mawson 15 34112135
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 1001 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Nov 20 Active
05 Nov 13 Unsettled to Active
06 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 23 was issued on 1 November
and is current for 3-4 Nov. Geomagnetic activity were at Quiet
levels on UT day 3 November across the Australian region. Some
Unsettled levels of geomagnetic activity were recorded in the
Antarctic region. The outlook for the next UT day, 4 November,
is for the global geomagnetic activity to stay at Quiet levels
at the beginning of the day, then it is expected to reach Active
to Minor Storm levels. There is a chance for isolated Major Storm
levels as well on 4 November. Then global geomagnetic activity
is expected to decrease gradually to Unsettled to Active Levels.
These forecasted disturbed conditions are in response to the
corotating interaction region (CIR) and subsequent high speed
solar wind streams associated with a large trans-equatorial coronal
hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Nov Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Nov Normal-fair Normal Normal
05 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed over the mid
and high latitude regions on UT day 3 November. MUF depressions
were observed over the dayside equatorial regions. Similar HF
conditions are expected for today, UT day 4 November
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Nov -21
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -17
Nov -7
Dec -7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Nov -10 Near predicted monthly values
05 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values
06 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mainly near the monthly predicted levels over
Australian and Antarctic region during UT day 3 November. The
highest MUF depression of 25% below monthly predicted levels
occurred over the Niue island region. MUFs are expected to return
to mostly near monthly predicted values on UT day 04 November
in response to an increased geomagnetic activity due to the approaching
coronal hole effects. On 05 November moderate depressions are
likely during the recovery phase of the storm.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Nov
Speed: 337 km/sec Density: 10.4 p/cc Temp: 24800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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