[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 November 18 issued 2331 UT on 02 Nov 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 3 10:31:27 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 NOVEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 NOVEMBER - 05 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Nov: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Nov 04 Nov 05 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 2 November.
There are currently no numbered sunspot regions on the visible
solar disc. Solar activity is expected to stay at Very Low levels
for the next three UT days, 3-5 November. No Earth-directed CMEs
were observed in the available latest LASCO imagery up to 02/1912
UT. During the last 24 hours the solar wind speed fluctuated
between 330 km/s and 360 km/s, IMF Bt varied mostly between 2
nT and 5 nT, and IMF Bz fluctuated between +3/-3 nT. On 3 November
the solar wind speed is expected to encrease because a large
recurrent trans-equatorial coronal hole is expected to reach
geoeffective location on the solar disc. The approaching coronal
hole has produced solar winds reaching 650 km/s at the location
of STEREO-A. Similar effects are expected at Earth.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Nov : A K
Australian Region 1 10111100
Cocos Island 1 00111100
Darwin 1 10111100
Townsville 2 10111110
Learmonth 1 00111101
Alice Springs 1 10111100
Culgoora 1 11011100
Gingin 2 10121100
Canberra 1 10021000
Launceston 2 20121100
Hobart 2 10121000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Nov :
Macquarie Island 1 00120000
Casey 8 33321111
Mawson 7 41121211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1122 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Nov 25 Active
04 Nov 15 Unsettled to Active
05 Nov 13 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 23 was issued on 1 November
and is current for 3-4 Nov. Geomagnetic activity were at Quiet
levels on UT day 2 November across the Australian region. Some
Unsettled levels of geomagnetic activity were recorded in the
Antarctic region. The outlook for the next UT day, 3 November,
is for the global geomagnetic activity to stay at Quiet levels
at the beginning of the day, then it is expected to reach Active
to Minor Storm levels. There is a chance for isolated Major Storm
levels as well on 3 November. Then global geomagnetic activity
is expected to decrease gradually to Unsettled to Active Levels.
These forecasted disturbed conditions are in response to the
corotating interaction region (CIR) and high speed solar wind
streams associated with a large trans-equatorial coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Nov Fair Fair Fair-poor
04 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
05 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed over the mid
and high latitude regions on UT day 2 November. MUF depressions
were observed over the dayside equatorial regions. Degraded HF
conditions are expected for the next 2 UT days, 3-4 November,
due to predicted increase in geomagnetic activity. MUFs are expected
to be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT day 03 November
in response to an increased geomagnetic activity and then, on
4 November, moderate depressions are likely.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Nov -23
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -17
Nov -7
Dec -7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Nov 0 Near predicted monthly values
04 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
25%
05 Nov -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
COMMENT: MUFs were mainly near the monthly predicted levels over
Australian and Antarctic region during UT day 2 November. The
highest MUF depression of 35% below monthly predicted levels
occurred over the Niue island region. MUFs are expected to return
to mostly near monthly predicted values on UT day 03 November
in response to an increased geomagnetic activity due to coronal
hole effects. On 04 November moderate depressions are likely.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Nov
Speed: 345 km/sec Density: 12.2 p/cc Temp: 35300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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