[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 November 18 issued 2331 UT on 02 Nov 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 3 10:31:27 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 NOVEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 NOVEMBER - 05 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Nov:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Nov             04 Nov             05 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 2 November. 
There are currently no numbered sunspot regions on the visible 
solar disc. Solar activity is expected to stay at Very Low levels 
for the next three UT days, 3-5 November. No Earth-directed CMEs 
were observed in the available latest LASCO imagery up to 02/1912 
UT. During the last 24 hours the solar wind speed fluctuated 
between 330 km/s and 360 km/s, IMF Bt varied mostly between 2 
nT and 5 nT, and IMF Bz fluctuated between +3/-3 nT. On 3 November 
the solar wind speed is expected to encrease because a large 
recurrent trans-equatorial coronal hole is expected to reach 
geoeffective location on the solar disc. The approaching coronal 
hole has produced solar winds reaching 650 km/s at the location 
of STEREO-A. Similar effects are expected at Earth.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Nov: Quiet

Estimated Indices 02 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   10111100
      Cocos Island         1   00111100
      Darwin               1   10111100
      Townsville           2   10111110
      Learmonth            1   00111101
      Alice Springs        1   10111100
      Culgoora             1   11011100
      Gingin               2   10121100
      Canberra             1   10021000
      Launceston           2   20121100
      Hobart               2   10121000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     1   00120000
      Casey                8   33321111
      Mawson               7   41121211

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   1122 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Nov    25    Active
04 Nov    15    Unsettled to Active
05 Nov    13    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 23 was issued on 1 November 
and is current for 3-4 Nov. Geomagnetic activity were at Quiet 
levels on UT day 2 November across the Australian region. Some 
Unsettled levels of geomagnetic activity were recorded in the 
Antarctic region. The outlook for the next UT day, 3 November, 
is for the global geomagnetic activity to stay at Quiet levels 
at the beginning of the day, then it is expected to reach Active 
to Minor Storm levels. There is a chance for isolated Major Storm 
levels as well on 3 November. Then global geomagnetic activity 
is expected to decrease gradually to Unsettled to Active Levels. 
These forecasted disturbed conditions are in response to the 
corotating interaction region (CIR) and high speed solar wind 
streams associated with a large trans-equatorial coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Nov      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
04 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
05 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed over the mid 
and high latitude regions on UT day 2 November. MUF depressions 
were observed over the dayside equatorial regions. Degraded HF 
conditions are expected for the next 2 UT days, 3-4 November, 
due to predicted increase in geomagnetic activity. MUFs are expected 
to be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT day 03 November 
in response to an increased geomagnetic activity and then, on 
4 November, moderate depressions are likely.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Nov   -23

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      -17
Nov      -7
Dec      -7

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Nov     0    Near predicted monthly values
04 Nov   -25    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                25%
05 Nov   -20    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                20%

COMMENT: MUFs were mainly near the monthly predicted levels over 
Australian and Antarctic region during UT day 2 November. The 
highest MUF depression of 35% below monthly predicted levels 
occurred over the Niue island region. MUFs are expected to return 
to mostly near monthly predicted values on UT day 03 November 
in response to an increased geomagnetic activity due to coronal 
hole effects. On 04 November moderate depressions are likely.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Nov
Speed: 345 km/sec  Density:   12.2 p/cc  Temp:    35300 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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