[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 May 18 issued 2330 UT on 29 May 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 30 09:30:22 EST 2018 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 MAY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 30 MAY - 01 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 May:  75/13


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 May             31 May             01 Jun
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              74/11

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 29 May, 
with two B-class flares produced by active region 2712. There 
is currently one numbered sunspot region on the visible solar 
disk. For the next 3 UT days, 30 May - 1 June, solar activity 
is expected to remain at very low levels with a chance for C-class 
flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the UT day, 
29 May, via LASCO C2 imagery up to 29/2048 UT. The solar wind 
was near its nominal levels, 370-410 km/s. The IMF Bt during 
the last 24 hours was varying in the range 3-8 nT; the Bz component 
of IMF was between -5 nT and 6 nT without significant periods 
with negative Bz. The outlook for today, 30 May, is for the solar 
wind speed to remain near its nominal values.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 29 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   12100000
      Cocos Island         1   11100000
      Darwin               2   12110001
      Townsville           2   11111001
      Learmonth            2   12200000
      Alice Springs        1   12100000
      Culgoora             1   12100000
      Gingin               1   11100000
      Canberra             0   11000000
      Launceston           1   12100000
      Hobart               0   02000000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 May :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                4   23210000
      Mawson              10   24211124

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra            11   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   1111 1111    


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 May     6    Quiet
31 May     6    Quiet
01 Jun    27    Active

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at quiet levels across the 
Australian region during the UT day, 29 May. Expect magnetic 
conditions to be mostly at quiet levels during the next two UT 
days, 30-31 May. On 1 June due to arrival of the corotating interaction 
region and high-speed solar wind streams associated with a recurrent 
trans-equatorial coronal hole, geomagnetic activity is expected 
to increase to active levels and can reach minor storm levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
31 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
01 Jun      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor

COMMENT: Expect mostly normal HF conditions for the next two 
UT days, 30-31 May, in all regions. The HF conditions will degrade 
on 1 June due to expected increase in geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 May     9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      7
May      1
Jun      0

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 May     5    Near predicted monthly values
31 May     5    Near predicted monthly values
01 Jun    10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values for most 
AUS/NZ regions on UT day 29 May. Mildly increased MUFs were observed 
in Southern Australian region during local night. Expect mostly 
near predicted monthly values for the next three UT days, 30 
May - 1 June.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.6E+06
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.8

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 May
Speed: 399 km/sec  Density:    7.8 p/cc  Temp:   163000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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