[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 May 18 issued 2330 UT on 30 May 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 31 09:30:26 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 MAY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 31 MAY - 02 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 May: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 May 01 Jun 02 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 74/11 73/9
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 30 May.
There is currently one numbered sunspot region on the visible
solar disk. For the next 3 UT days, 31 May - 2 June, solar activity
is expected to remain at very low levels with a slight chance
for C-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during
the UT day, 30 May, via LASCO C2 imagery up to 30/1436 UT. The
solar wind was near its nominal levels, 330-390 km/s. The IMF
Bt during the last 24 hours was varying in the range 3-6 nT;
the Bz component of IMF was between -3 nT and 2 nT without significant
periods with negative Bz. The outlook for today, 31 May, is for
the solar wind speed to remain near its background values.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 May : A K
Australian Region 1 01100011
Cocos Island 1 111000--
Darwin 1 011000--
Townsville 1 11100011
Learmonth 2 02110-11
Alice Springs 1 111000--
Culgoora 1 01000011
Gingin 1 011000--
Canberra 0 010000--
Launceston 1 11000011
Hobart 0 01000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 May :
Macquarie Island 0 000000--
Casey 3 122110--
Mawson 7 322211--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 May : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 May : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 2211 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 May 6 Quiet
01 Jun 27 Active
02 Jun 20 Active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 11 was issued on 30 May and
is current for 1 Jun only. Magnetic conditions were at quiet
levels across the Australian region during the UT day, 30 May.
Expect magnetic conditions to be mostly at quiet levels during
the next UT day, 31 May. On 1 June due to arrival of the corotating
interaction region and high-speed solar wind streams associated
with a recurrent trans-equatorial coronal hole, geomagnetic activity
is expected to increase to active levels and can reach minor
storm levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 May Normal Normal Normal
01 Jun Fair Fair Fair-poor
02 Jun Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Expect mostly normal HF conditions for the next UT day,
31 May, in all regions. The HF conditions will degrade on 1-2
June due to expected increase in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 May 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 7
May 1
Jun 0
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 May 5 Near predicted monthly values
01 Jun 10 Near predicted monthly values
02 Jun 12 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values for AUS/NZ
regions on UT day 30 May. Mildly increased MUFs were observed
in Southern Australian region during local night. Minor depressions
were observed in Northern Australian region during local day.
Expect mostly near predicted monthly values for the next two
UT days, 31 May - 1 June.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 May
Speed: 393 km/sec Density: 6.4 p/cc Temp: 179000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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