[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 May 18 issued 2330 UT on 28 May 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 29 09:30:40 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 MAY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 29 MAY - 31 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 May: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 May 30 May 31 May
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 76/14 76/14
COMMENT: Solar activity was low for the UT day, 28 May, with
one C2.7 flare and several B-class flares produced by active
region 2712. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on
the visible solar disk. For the next 3 UT days, 29-31 May, solar
activity is expected to remain at very low levels with a chance
for C-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during
the UT day, 28 May, via LASCO C2 imagery up to 28/2000 UT. The
solar wind was near its nominal levels, 370-415 km/s, gradually
decreasing on average. The IMF Bt during the last 24 hours was
varying in the range 4-6 nT; the Bz component of IMF was between
-3 nT and 5 nT. The outlook for today, 29 May, is for the solar
wind speed to exhibit a declining trend as the coronal hole effect
wanes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 May : A K
Australian Region 1 11100000
Cocos Island 1 11100000
Darwin 1 11100001
Townsville 2 11111001
Learmonth 1 11110000
Alice Springs 0 01000000
Gingin 1 11100100
Canberra 0 01000000
Launceston 1 01001100
Hobart 0 01000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00001000
Casey 3 22211010
Mawson 5 12121221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 May : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1201 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 May 6 Quiet
30 May 6 Quiet
31 May 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at quiet levels across the
Australian region during the UT day, 28 May. Expect magnetic
conditions to be mostly at quiet levels during the next three
UT days, 29-31 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
31 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Expect mostly normal HF conditions for the next 3 UT
days, 29-31 May, in all regions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 May 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 7
May 1
Jun 0
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 May 5 Near predicted monthly values
30 May 5 Near predicted monthly values
31 May 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values for most
AUS/NZ regions on UT day 28 May. Mildly increased MUFs were observed
in Southern Australian region during local night. Expect mostly
near predicted monthly values for the next three UT days, 29-31
May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 May
Speed: 349 km/sec Density: 4.5 p/cc Temp: 31300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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