[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 May 18 issued 2330 UT on 27 May 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 28 09:30:24 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 MAY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 28 MAY - 30 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 May:  75/13


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 May             29 May             30 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    73/9               72/8               72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 27 May, 
with few weak B-class flares. There are currently 3 numbered 
sunspot regions on the visible solar disk. Solar activity is 
expected to remain at very low levels for the next 3 UT days 
(28-30 May) with a weak chance for C-class flares. No Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed during UT day, 27 May, via LASCO C2 imagery 
up to 27/1936 UT. The solar wind speed up till 27/2000 UT was 
near the nominal level of 350 km/s and thereafter increased. 
The solar wind speed at the time of writing this report was near 
420 km/s. The observed moderate enhancements in the solar wind 
speed is in response to high speed stream associated with a polar 
connected, positive polarity coronal hole. The IMF Bt during 
the last 24 hours was varying in the range 4-6 nT; the Bz component 
of IMF was between -3 nT and 5 nT. The outlook for today (28 
May) is for the solar wind speed to reach moderately elevated 
levels as the effects of the coronal hole persist. Expect solar 
wind to exhibit a declining trend from UT day 29 May as the coronal 
hole effect wanes.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 27 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   12111000
      Cocos Island         2   12110010
      Darwin               2   12011011
      Townsville           3   12111011
      Learmonth            2   12111000
      Alice Springs        2   12111000
      Gingin               2   11111010
      Canberra             2   12011000
      Launceston           3   12022001
      Hobart               2   12021000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 May :
      Macquarie Island     1   01021000
      Casey                2   12111010
      Mawson               7   23112222

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             5   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              3   0100 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled
29 May     7    Quiet
30 May     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at quiet levels across the 
Australian region during the UT day, 27 May. Expect magnetic 
conditions to be mostly at quiet levels and at times may reach 
unsettled levels, today (28 May), in response to the moderately 
elevated solar wind speed associated with passage of the northern 
polar coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
29 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Expect mostly normal HF conditions for the next 3 UT 
days (29-30 May) in all regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 May     3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      7
May      1
Jun      0

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 May     5    Near predicted monthly values
29 May    -5    Near predicted monthly values
30 May     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values for most 
AUS/NZ regions on UT day 27 May. Expect mostly near predicted 
monthly values for the next three UT days (28-30 May). The ionospheric 
support is expected to be slightly better today, but still near 
monthly predicted levels. This is in to response to the onset 
of possible minor magnetic disturbance associated with the passage 
of the polar coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.5

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 May
Speed: 339 km/sec  Density:    5.2 p/cc  Temp:    18300 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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